Weekly Trading Forecast: Dollar, Euro, Pound and Yuan Compete for Top Volatility
The convergence of event risk and themes is stirring deeper trends in the global markets. Critical themes ahead to watch include Fed timing, Brexit fears, China's health and an ECB turning point
How strong is the Dollar? This past week, the DXY Dollar Index posted its most robust weekly advance (1.44 percent) in nearly eight months. Yet, there is a trade-weighted bias in this this measure that gives considerable deference to the EUR/USD, GBP/USDand USD/JPY(descending in that order).
Key developments coming out of the U.S. & U.K. may push GBP/USD out of a narrowing range even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains in no rush to raise the benchmark interest rate, while the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be altering its monetary policy outlook following the British Pound‘flash crash.’
The most recent Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision at the beginning of October was the first to be led by newly-installed RBA Governor, Dr. Phillip Lowe; ending a run of ten years in which the bank was led by his predecessor, Mr. Glenn Stevens.
The Canadian Dollar will look toward the Bank of Canada Rate Announcement and subsequent statement to see whether or not there are signs of encouragement in the Canadian economy.
The offshore Yuan dipped the lowest level in 9-month, with the USD/CNH climbing above 6.74 on Thursday. The onshore Yuan fell to the lowest level since September 2010, with the USD/CNY touching 6.7312.
Gold prices were virtually unchanged on the week with the previous metal down just 0.05% to trade at 1256 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The recent range-bound price actions comes amid broader volatility in U.S. Equity markets with all three major indices set to close lower on the week.