AUD/USD: Trading the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI

30 June 2016, 14:43
Sherif Hasan

Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in China. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Friday at 1:45 GMT.

Indicator Background                             

Traders should pay close attention to this key release, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner, and an unexpected reading can quickly affect the direction of AUD/USD.

Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI continues to post to contraction in the manufacturing sector. The indicator came in at 49.2 points in May and little change is expected in the upcoming release.

Sentiments and levels

The stunning vote in the UK has caused plenty of turmoil in the markets, and the aftershocks could lessen the appetite for risk and hurt risky commodities like the Aussie. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.7692, 0.7597, 0.7438, 0.7334, 0.7192 and 0.7105

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 46.0 to 52.0: In such a case, AUD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 52.1 to 56.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 56.0: Given the current trend, the likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome would likely push the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 42.0 to 45.9: A sharper decrease than forecast could push AUD/USD downwards and break one level of support.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 42.0: A very poor reading could impact on the Australian dollar and push the pair below a second support level.
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