Trader Daily Market Update

3 June 2016, 09:00
Mohammad Soubra
0
13
03 June 2016, Time of Writing: 09:00 am

Trader Daily Market Update

  
Major Calendar News
Time (GMT)NameCountryVol.Prev.        Cons.        Sentiment
08:30Services PMIGBPHigh52.352.5Neutral
12:30Average Hourly Earnings m/mUSDHigh0.3%0.2%Neutral
12:30Non-Farm Employment ChangeUSDHigh160K159KPositive
12:30Unemployment RateUSDHigh5.0%4.9%Positive
12:30Trade BalanceUSDMed.-40.4B-41.2BNeutral
12:30Trade BalanceCADHigh-3.4B-2.5BNeutral
12:30Labor Productivity q/qCADMed.0.1%0.4%Positive
13:45Final Services PMIUSDMed.51.251.2Neutral
14:00ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIUSDHigh55.755.4Neutral
14:00Factory Orders m/mUSDMed.1.1%1.8%Negative
16:30FOMC Member Brainard SpeechUSDMed.--Dove
Vol.: Volatility; Prev.: Previous; Cons.: Consensus

Key Support/Resistance Levels
H4R2R1PivotS1S2
EURUSD1.12461.11981.11711.11251.1098
GBPUSD1.44961.44491.44121.43801.4353
USDJPY109.85109.35108.92108.42108.02
AUDUSD0.72990.72630.72310.71960.7164
USDCAD1.31851.31401.30921.30521.3009

Latest News

As widely expected, the European Central Bank announced no change in their monetary policy during yesterday’s meeting. ECB members stated their preference to wait until they can fully assess the impacts from their corporate bonds purchases, which will begin on the 8th of June, and the TRLTRO2 auction allotted for the 23rd of June. Although EURUSD did end the day slightly lower, the pair was relatively unaffected by the announcement as it remained within a 75pip range throughout the day. The OPEC meeting meanwhile was a disappointment, with member countries not being able to come to any sort of agreement regarding an oil production freeze. Oil initially fell 2% on the news, though later recovered to finish the day marginally higher after the EIA reported a surprise 1.4M drawdown in inventories. Lastly, employment in the US continues to remain strong, as the ADP report showed an additional 173K jobs created in the private sector in May while unemployment claims fell 1K from last week to 267K.

Today’s main event risk will come from the publication of the US’ non-farm employment report. Expectations remain high, given yesterday's strong ADP data, with the market forecasting a headline figure of 159K. Risks remain to the downside, given the Verizon strike which affected nearly 40K workers. Also as important will be average hourly earnings, which are expected to drop 0.1% from last month’s figure to 0.2%. Meanwhile, during the European session we will get the UK’s latest services PMI figure – expected to rise to 52.5 from 52.3. Lastly, the FED's member Brainard is scheduled to hold a speech later this afternoon which regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Council of Foreign Relations.

Daily Technical Analysis
 Summary:Trend:Momentum:Daily Target:Volatility (14D):
EURUSDSELLSELLSELL1.108561 Pips
GBPUSDSELLSELLSELL1.4330117 Pips
USDJPYSELLSELLSELL108.10103 Pips
AUDUSDBUYBUYBUY0.730070 Pips
USDCADBUYSIDEWAYSBUY1.315093 Pips
Daily Technical Analysis is conducted using great proprietary technology based on advanced methods of time-series analysis and custom build technical indicators. Detailed quantitative analysis of the market state on different timeframes let us accurately evaluate current Trend and Momentum. Going further we deduce the daily target from the multiple factors such as long and short term momentum, different volatility measures, mode of market behaviour and other characteristics. For a ranged market we will show a range instead of a single number.

Daily Forecasts
 Spot Price*Last Update1 Day1 Week1 Month
EURUSD1.114903/06/20161.10951.111.11
GBPUSD1.440503/06/20161.43551.441.47
USDJPY108.9303/06/2016109.70110113
AUDUSD0.723003/06/20160.72000.720.73
USDCAD1.308803/06/20161.30201.311.31

*spot prices as of 06:00GMT

Daily Forecasts consists of both technical and fundamental analysis as well as a review of open sources from major FX contributors.

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