Trader Daily Market Update

Trader Daily Market Update

As widely expected, the European Central Bank announced no change in their monetary policy during yesterday’s meeting. ECB members stated their preference to wait until they can fully assess the impacts from their corporate bonds purchases, which will begin on the 8th of June, and the TRLTRO2 auction allotted for the 23rd of June. Although EURUSD did end the day slightly lower, the pair was relatively unaffected by the announcement as it remained within a 75pip range throughout the day. The OPEC meeting meanwhile was a disappointment, with member countries not being able to come to any sort of agreement regarding an oil production freeze. Oil initially fell 2% on the news, though later recovered to finish the day marginally higher after the EIA reported a surprise 1.4M drawdown in inventories. Lastly, employment in the US continues to remain strong, as the ADP report showed an additional 173K jobs created in the private sector in May while unemployment claims fell 1K from last week to 267K.

Today’s main event risk will come from the publication of the US’ non-farm employment report. Expectations remain high, given yesterday's strong ADP data, with the market forecasting a headline figure of 159K. Risks remain to the downside, given the Verizon strike which affected nearly 40K workers. Also as important will be average hourly earnings, which are expected to drop 0.1% from last month’s figure to 0.2%. Meanwhile, during the European session we will get the UK’s latest services PMI figure – expected to rise to 52.5 from 52.3. Lastly, the FED's member Brainard is scheduled to hold a speech later this afternoon which regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Council of Foreign Relations.

*spot prices as of 06:00GMT

Daily Forecasts consists of both technical and fundamental analysis as well as a review of open sources from major FX contributors.