What to Watch Out in Today's FOMC Minutes

What to Watch Out in Today's FOMC Minutes

18 May 2016, 14:11
Roberto Jacobs

What to Watch Out in Today's FOMC Minutes

Today, Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes of its April meeting, which is the biggest event risks for Dollar based pairs. Today’s minutes is of particular interest to have a feel, which camp within FOMC gaining momentum. Several policymakers have warned that June meeting is quite live for rate hikes but market is far from pricing it.

  • Key to watch out will be the sets of risks to U.S. economic outlook, other than strong USD.
  • ‘Many’, ‘some’, these are the wording that will require close scrutiny to have a feel, how many policymakers are in which camp, dovish or hawkish.
  • Outlook for hikes, as policymakers skipped April, any hints for what might occur in June.
  • What are the factors worrying FED?
  • How concerning Brexit risks for June meeting?
  • Inflation is rising data shows, how concern is FED?

Today’s minutes may prove positive for Dollar, since April statement was quite dovish and didn’t mention much details on FED’s thinking, especially without Janet Yellen’s press conference.

Moreover it is likely to be mentioned that many members feel another 25 basis points hike to be required over next few meetings and FED will raise rates by 50 basis points this year.

Since the April meeting, speeches of many FOMC members have been hawkish leaning. This group includes, Boston FED chief Rosengren, Atlanta FED president Lockhart, Kansas city FED president Esther George and San Francisco FED President Williams.

Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at June 6th, just before blackout period.

Dollar index is currently trading at 94.9, up 0.35% so far today.

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