EUR Shorts Reduced for Eight Consecutive Weeks - Rabobank
Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, lists down the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 10 May 2016.
“Despite the dovish position of the ECB, speculators have reduced their net EUR shorts for a run of eight consecutive weeks. Shorts now stand at just 13% of their December high and are at their lowest level since May 2014 before the ECB initially cut its discount rate into negative territory.
Net USD longs finally showed signs of recovery. Positions the previous week had dropped to their lowest since June 2014 just prior to the sharp increase in USD buying in H2 2014.
JPY longs edged lower for a third consecutive week as the MoF continued to warn of a policy reaction to yen strength. Net speculators’ longs recently reached multi year highs.
Net sterling shorts dropped to their lowest level for seven weeks. Last month they climbed to their highest point since June 2013. GBP remains vulnerable to political uncertainty ahead of the June 23 referendum on EU membership. Opinion polls still suggest that the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps are neck and neck.
Net CHF long positions held steady. Last month they moved to their strongest levels since June 2015 despite the SNB’s reiteration of its threat that it could intervene to offset demand for the CHF.
Net AUD long plunged in further reaction to the RBA’s surprise rate cut and weaker inflation projections. CAD net positions held in positive territory for a sixth consecutive week on the back of stronger oil prices.”