US: NFP Expected to Rise by 200K in Apr - Westpac
Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the consensus
for US Apr non-farm payrolls is 200k, after 215k in Mar and 245k in Feb.
Key Quotes
“On the positive side are
the 5 week gap between survey weeks, very low jobless claims and a
bounce in the services ISM employment index. Potential negative
influences include the strikingly weak 156k reading on ADP private
payrolls and the mild winter, which might mean Feb and Mar were boosted
by hiring in retail and construction being pulled forward from Apr-May.
The
separately calculated unemployment rate is expected to tick down from
5.0% to 4.9%, though consensus was also for 4.9% last month. The
employment report is always important to the Fed and usually produces at
least passing volatility. But since there is another report before the
FOMC’s 15 June meeting, the April data doesn’t seem vital for USD.”