The UK’s EU referendum campaign meanwhile is now in full flow. Bloomberg’s latest poll tracker puts the ‘remain’ camp at 40%, with the ‘Leave’ camp at 39% and 21% undecided. So, still far too close to call. The Chancellor’s ‘long-term assessment of the economic costs of Brexit’ is said by the FT this morning to put the cost at GBP 4,300 per year for each household.
Warnings of a significant cost to leaving alongside uncertainty about the outcome of the vote, and you have a recipe for sterling to remain under pressure in the days and weeks ahead.
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Short GBP/USD may once again be the simplest way of trading the combination of post-Doha softer oil prices, and UK political uncertainty.