Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season

Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season

8 April 2016, 12:23
Mohammad Soubra
0
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Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season


Talking Points:

  • Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
  • Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
  • Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.


A relatively quiet economic calendar through the remainder of the trading week seems likely to make for a sentiment-centric mood into the week-end. That may augur a repeat of yesterday’s performance on Wall Street, where the latest bout of selling pressure probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season starting next week.


Collectively speaking, earnings per share for the companies making up the S&P 500 are expected to have fallen 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016. Fears of such dour results may inspire continued unwinding of risk-on exposure, leading shares downward and pulling higher-yielding currencies in the same direction.


Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB)

2434.9b

2032.3b

520.8b

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB)

1733.5b

1571.9b

1492.4b

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB)

425.2b

429.7b

-411.0b

00:15

USD

Fed's George Speaks on US Economy

-

-

-

04:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)

-13.15%

-

4.47%

06:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (MAR)

45.4

45.5

44.6

06:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAR)

46.7

48.3

48.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (MAR)

3.6% (A)

3.7%

Low

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (MAR)

3.5% (A)

3.4%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (FEB)

20.3b (A)

13.4b

Low

06:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (FEB)

20.0b (A)

14.3b

Low

06:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (FEB)

1.3% (A)

-0.6%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (FEB)

0.4% (A)

1.3%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.2%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

-0.9%

-0.8%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.2%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR)

-1.1%

-0.9%

Low

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.1%

0.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)

0.0%

0.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)

-0.2%

0.7%

Low

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)

-0.7%

-0.1%

Low

08:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance £/Mn (FEB)

-£10200

-£10289

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU £/Mn (FEB)

-£2500

-£2199

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1158

1.1274

1.1326

1.1390

1.1442

1.1506

1.1622

GBP/USD

1.3871

1.3979

1.4018

1.4087

1.4126

1.4195

1.4303

 

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