Generalized Forex Forecast for 04-08 April 2016

Generalized Forex Forecast for 04-08 April 2016

2 April 2016, 17:59
Sergey Ershov

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, right were those 55% of the experts, who insisted on the growth of the pair and its move into the zone 1.1340 ÷ 1.1470. This was what happened with accuracy close to 100%, - on Friday, the pair reached a height of 1.1438, rebounded down to the 1.1335 support and then stopped almost in the centre of this area - at 1.1392;

■ as for the pair GBP/USD, all of March it performed large-scale fluctuations, which put many analysts to a standstill. The pair demonstrated a similar behaviour last week as well, first rising by 340 and then dropping by 290 points;

■ giving the forecast for USD/JPY, technical analysis on the H4 pointed to the movement of the pair within the 112.30 ÷ 113.50, while on D1 slightly wider - within 110.70 ÷ 114.00, with the gradual consolidation in the support area. The pair made week exactly in the middle between the two forecasts - having rebounded from 113.80 resistance, it really rushed down, stopping finally at the level of 111.60; 

■ but the pair USD/CHF behaved quite differently from what was expected. Instead of expected growth, it broke the support at 0.9650 and fell another 60 points lower, ending the week at the level of 0.9587.


Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

■ as for the future of EUR/USD, opinions have been divided as follows: 70% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 vote for the growth of the pair at least to the level of 1.1500. At the same time, half of these experts, supported by graphical analysis, think that the pair can rise significantly higher than 1.1500, picking up to a height of 1.1700 and the 1.1400 level will become a strong support for the pair. As for the remaining 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4, they, on the contrary, consider the area of 1.1400 a similar strong resistance from which the pair must leave sharply down - to support 1.1165. It will become clear in the beginning of the week, which of these scenarios will be selected;

■ according to the forecasts of indicators and graphical analysis, the GBP/USD pair has to go to the south. However, only 40% of the experts agree with this statement, and the remaining experts look in the opposite direction. At the same time, all of them are of the opinion that the amplitude of the pair's oscillation pair will hold out within the last three weeks boundaries. If we talk about a long-term forecast, both technical analysis, and more than half of the experts still tend to expect the pair's fall down to February lows near 1.3850;

■ USD/JPY. The forecast of the graphical analysis on D1 for this pair has remained the same as last week - first vibrations within the 110.70 ÷ 114.00 with a gradual consolidation in the support area, and then a sharp rebound of the pair from the lower border to the height of 117.00. This forecast is supported by 100% of indicators and 65% of experts, who warn at the same time that the upswing may not happen before the second half of April - beginning of May;

■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, about 40% of the experts, together with the indicators, believe that the pair has not yet completed its fall, and the bottom for it is at last October minimum levels - in the area of ​​1.9485. As for the remaining 60% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4, they are sure it's time for the pair to go up - first to the height of 0.9740 and then further to the resistance of 0.9880. Support is at the level of 0.9570. 


Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov

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