First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- basing on graphical analysis on H1 and H4 we assumed a week ago that the pair would bounce off support at 1.0628, go up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. The pair actually went up reaching the height of 1.0690 on Wednesday, after which, as predicted, fell down;
- for GBP/USD graphical analysis turned out to be only half right: according to its forecast it was supposed to rebound upwards first, then drop to support at 1.5085 and then further to the area of 1.5025. In reality starting from Monday the pair headed South and reached the set bottom by Friday finishing at 1.5030;
- as for USD/JPY, last week the experts and indicators were of different opinion. However our attempt to summarize their opinions turned out to be quite successful – resistance went through at the level of 123.20, and the pair was moving along Pivot Point 122.80, finishing the week exactly at the set level;
- forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be basically true as well. A small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially and then a surge to a new target of 1.0250 was predicted. That is what happened, the pair reached the set level 1.0250 on Wednesday and stayed there till mid Friday when it made another surge flying up another almost 100 points.
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Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- as for the future of EUR/USD 65% of experts, all the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 amicably predict the fall of the pair to the minimum of March 2015, ie to the zone 1.0450 ÷ 1.0500, after which the pair should fight off the resistance of 1.0620;
- almost the same picture is drawn for the GBP/USD: both analysts and all the tools of technical and graphical analysis almost unanimously suggest that the pair should also fall into the zone of March figures. The level of 1.5000 is called as the nearest support, the next one is 1.4890;
- but with regard to the future of USD/JPY, the opinions diverge. 70% of experts, supported by indicators, insist on a transition of the pair to the zone 123.00 ÷ 124.00, graphical analysis on H4 disagrees sharply. It says that the pair must first go down to the support of 121.50, and then return to the previous week Pivot Point - 122.80. Indicators on D1 also vote for the continuation of the sideways trend;
- USD/CHF is rapidly approaching the values of 2007-2009, and now a full picture can only be seen on the time-frames W1 and above. As for the weekly forecast, 100% of the experts, 100% of indicators along with graphical analysis on H4 speak about the desire of the pair to reach a height of 1.0400 initially and then 1.0500 as well. Such unanimity causes a certain suspicion, but if you look at the last year's graph, the anxiety is growing even stronger. If you remember, the pair was similarly actively growing through all last autumn, after which a "Black Thursday" on January 15th happened. This is unlikely to be repeated in the coming days, but graphical analysis at D1 recalls that the pair may well fall to the level of 0.9850 during the week, and only then return to the 1.0300 zone.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
