Morgan Stanley made a fundamental forecast for EUR/USD related to the price movement - they estimated for this pair to be in ranging bearish in the near future up to the year-end for example: "EUR is likely to remain an underperformer in the current environment. Monetary divergence between the ECB and the Fed should keep the currency under pressure. The main risk to our EUR view would be a selloff in risk into the first Fed hike. This would likely drive some repatriation and funding unwinds, which would support EUR given its funding status. Overall, we maintain our bearish view."
Let's evaluate this forecast from the technical point of view.
As
we see from the chart above - weekly price is located below 100 period
SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish breakdown:
the price is trying to break 1.0600 psy support level from above to
below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing. And the next nearest
target with this situation is 1.0461 support level.
- Recommendation for long: N/A
- Recommendation
to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0600 support level for 1.0461 as the next bearish target.
- Trading Summary: bearish
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1494 | 1.0461 |
| N/A | 1.0400 |
