Oil rally has helped two of Asia's most depressed currencies

Oil rally has helped two of Asia's most depressed currencies

8 October 2015, 09:25
Anton Voropaev
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The recent oil rally has helped two of Asia's most depressed currencies regain much-needed ground against the dollar. 

Malaysia's ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah, whose value is tightly linked to energy prices, have both been well behaved in recent days. 

The Indonesian rupiah Thursday climbed to 13,850 against the greenback, from the trough of 13,825 hit a day earlier, on October 7.

The ringgit, meanwhile, rose to 4,2260 against the dollar from 4.394 a week earlier.

These moves reflect a slight recovery in oil prices. The global oil benchmark, Brent Crude, was last up 0.60% for the day, at $51.64 a barrel.

Malaysia and Indonesia are big oil exporters so perceptions of their economies usually shift in sync with commodity markets. Since oil prices have edged higher recently, the pressure on currencies in these countries has somewhat eased.

However, the respite may be temporary given the sluggish growth, according to analysts.

Jason Daw, a foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale said in a note that after a poor Q3 performance, "a correction is not unusual. But an emerging market rally built on weaker growth prospects is an unsustainable equilibrium."

Until the recent bounce, the rupiah had been steadily declining against the dollar this year, as oil prices dropped and capital continued to flow out of emerging markets on concerns about China's economic slowdown and the uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy.

Similarly, the Malaysian currency had also been falling against the dollar since August. 

Malaysia also has to deal with a boiling corruption scandal in which Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak may be involved. The minister's strategic fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) has been in the limelight for months, amid allegations of false auditing, huge debt and, more recently, financial fraud, with alleged links to the PM. He has denied any wrongdoing and his office has yet to respond to a request for comment on the latest developments.

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