Forecasts for EUR/GBP by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: bearish breakdown in the end of 2015

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.11 16:35

Any USD downside should stay limited from the current levels - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)

• "Risk sentiment remains unstable ahead of this weekend’s data out of China and next week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement."
• "It seems to become a stronger notion that the Fed will consider higher rates next week, irrespective of more muted price developments and intact uncertainty as related to Asia. This is also reflected in Bloomberg consensus expectations, according to which a lift-off is favoured next week. If so, the greenback should remain supported versus for instance the JPY. This is especially true as rate markets price in a probability for the Fed to tighten of only 30%."
• "However, even if the Fed will remain on hold, as forecasted by our economists, central bank Chairwoman Yellen should consider a more hawkish rhetoric during the press conference in order to prepare the market for a lift off in October. This in turn suggests that any USD downside should stay limited from the current levels."
• "All of the above suggests too that EUR/USD upside should prove limited, even if the pair continues to benefit from weak sentiment."