EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast - Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast - Non-Farm Payrolls

7 August 2015, 08:19
Sergey Golubev
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The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) made forecast concerning the following coming high impacted news events:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (or Non-Farm Employment Change) - they made a forecast for non-farm payroll growth of 250K in July, above the listed consensus of 225K.

Just to remind that previous NFP data was 223K, and forecasting for now is 225K for example, so if RBS is looking for 250K as an actual data - it means to be more bearish for EURUSD. Because in case of NPF: actual > forecast = good for currency (for US Dollar in our case). So, it means: more bearish for EURUSD with some key support levels to be broken.

  • "After 2Q growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI, a broad measure of compensation) underwhelmed sharply, we think the monthly average hourly earnings growth could look more positive, as even a trend like gain would boost the y/y rate. (RBSe 2.2% y/y vs. consensus 2.3%). While we think the employment report will be broadly positive, our economists think a pickup in the labour force could push the unemployment rate up from 5.3% to 5.4%."
  • "We think strong payroll gain should support the USD, particularly after FOMC officials have placed a much greater focus on the cumulative recovery in the labour market than on concerns emanating from abroad."

Thus, this forecast for NFP which was made by RBS means the following: the EUR/USD price will be in downward tendency/bearish breakdown, or ranging bearish.



And just about the levels:

  • if we look at H4 Ichimoku chart so we see that the price is on ranging bearish with 1.0873 support level;
  • if we look at M5 price action chart - the support level to be brokeb by price will be 1.0910.

And some recommendation for levels which should be broken during NFP:

  • Recommendation for short: watch close price to break 1.0910 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to re-enter short: watch price to break 1.0873 support level to re-enter sell trade
  • Trading NFP Summary: ranging bearish


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