EURNOK - H4 Bearish Price Action targets psychological level of 8.0

EURNOK - H4 Bearish Price Action targets psychological level of 8.0

6 October 2014, 09:02
linreg
0
75

I find the EURNOK short positions to be ideal, especially when there is too much of attention to the major pairs, besides the point of the positive swaps this pair attracts on shorts.

EURNOK - Technically Speaking

Technically speaking, the chart below offers a very bearish outlook for EURNOK. To keep it simple, i'll just point out the facts in a bullet point.

  • Bearish consolidation was formed after a sharp drop from 8.31 levels, there was a fakeout to the upside but price soon returned back to the bearish channel of the flag
  • After a sharp drop, EURNOK bounced from the support of 8.10 to head back and retest the initial breakout at 8.15
  • The failure to make a higher high above 8.19 gives us the second clue (besides the bearish flag)
  • Plotting a small term trend line, price has broken out of it quite recently
  • The immediate targets come in at 8.10 followed by 8 (7.99 rounded off to 8), the final measured target of the EURNOK bearish price action
  • Selling at market with another pending position at the break out level of 8.15 would see stops coming in above 8.19
  • The EURNOK short set up offers an overall good Risk/Reward ratio as well

EURNOK H4 Chart

EURNOK H4, Short Term Analysis

EURNOK Weekly Chart

A major long term descending triangle has been taking shape, with the support level of 8.13 required to break down from this descending triangle, with an objective of reaching the target of 7.76.

EURNOK Weekly Charts, Descending Triangle

EURNOK - Fundamentally Speaking

  • I don't think I have to go into much details of the Euro currency weakness
  • This week there aren't any key events from the Eurozone with the exception of Draghi's speech on 9th October
  • Economic calendar is packed for the NOK though (refer to the table below)
  • EURNOK shorts is also fueled by Norges Bank purchasing 250mn Nok per day since October, although it wouldn't play a big role in the EURNOK pair

Norway - Weekly Economic Calendar

DATE
EVENT
 FORECASTPREVIOUS
07/10/2014
Industrial production y/y
-1.48%
-2.8%
07/10/2014Industrial production m/m
-0.97%
-0.6%
07/10/2014Manufacturing production y/y
1.95%
2.9%
10/10/2014
Inflation Rate y/y
2%
2.1%
10/10/2014
PPI y/y
-0.56%
-3.3%
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