According to the economists polled by Bloomberg, Switzerland is now
suffering from its biggest decline in output since the 2008-2009
financial crisis as exports slump three months since ending a cap on the franc.
Swiss gross domestic product shrank 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year and will drop another 0.2 percent in the current quarter - that would be the first recession in more than five years, 12 economists polled by Bloomberg consider.
Economic growth was hit due to a 17 percent rise in the franc against the euro since Jan. 15, when the Swiss National Bank removed its cap on the currency, hurting exporters.
“We don’t expect something terrible, but a small recession is reasonable given the shock to the export sector and given that the SNB seems ready to allow an appreciation to continue,” said Julien Manceaux, senior economist at ING in Brussels.
Since giving up the cap, SNB policy makers have reiterated they’re prepared to intervene to ensure monetary conditions remain adequate.
The poll was carried out between April 10 and April 16. First-quarter GDP data is due on May 29.
