Will China and Russia save Greece?

Will China and Russia save Greece?

11 February 2015, 16:00
Anton Voropaev
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As Greece has stepped onto a hard line with the European creditors, the country claims it has other friends, namely, Russia, China and the United States.

"We have other ways of finding money," Greek defence minister Panos Kammenos said on Greek television, "It could be the United States at best, it could be Russia, it could be China or other countries."

The Mediterranean country will ask for more time to negotiate a new long-term debt agreement when it meets with eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. But both sides are far from mutual understanding and the clock is ticking: Greece's bailout finishes at the end of February. The standoff between disgruntled lenders - in particular Germany - and Greece hardens.

Greece has promised to get rid of many of the reforms that were required to secure its €240 billion ($272 billion) bailout, and wants to renegotiate the terms of the loans. However, the European partners do not seem ready to make concessions.

Russia

Meanwhile, the country has drawn closer to old ally Russia. At the moment, relations between Russia and the EU are the worst they've been since the Cold War due to the Ukraine crisis.

On Wednesday foreign minister Nikos Kotzias met with his Russian collegue Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Kotzias is said to have had close links to the Greek communist party during the Cold War. He also has a record of supporting Russia, including under Putin.

More to that, almost 13% of Greek imports came from Russia in 2013, according to the IMF data. The countries have agreed to make 2016 the "Year of Greece" in Russia, and the "Year of Russia" in Greece.

However, further financial connections seem unlikely, as Russia is not in a position to provide enough aid to Greece. Russia's economy is shrinking as a combination of low oil prices and Western sanctions trimmed growth.

And if Greece was to turn its back on Europe, its banking sector - which faces dwindling sources of funding - would come under more stress, according to Berenberg economist Rob Wood.

China

The Asian largest economy has made significant investments in Greece's ports and has other trade ties with the country. It also has substantial foreign reserves of around $4 trillion, which could easily wipe out the loans Europe has issued to Greece. But there's no obvious advantage to China stepping into a regional problem.

"Would China really want to wade into the middle of the eurozone in an antagonistic way?" said Wood. "For Russia there's upside in destabilizing their opponent, but for China, I can't see any upside, politically or economically."

United States

Associate professor at the London School of Economics Spyros Economides said it's unlikely the United States would move to save Greece.

"It may exert some kind of influence in European circles to make sure that Greece is not cut adrift. Would the [U.S.] step in and bail out a member of the eurozone? I can't see that happening," he said.

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