GBP/USD's rebound from 1.4950 extended higher last week and the development suggested near term bottoming. As long as 1.5161 minor support intact, further rise could be seen initially this week. But we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.5540, 38.2% retracement of 1.6523 to 1.4950 at 1.5551, to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.5161 minor support will bring retest of 1.4950 low first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development argues that such consolidation is possibly completed at 1.7190, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. GBP/USD is now heading back to 1.4813 key support level. We'd hold on to this bearish view as long as 1.5785 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, we're sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn't be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we'll then see a more sustainable rebound.
