Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, believes that unless USD/CAD makes a new high the chances of the pair seeing a sustained correction will rise.
Key Quotes
“We remain conviction CAD bears from a fundamental perspective—and not just against the USD. Similar considerations (policy and fundamental divergence) apply for GBPCAD and price gains (long-term consolidation break out and a move to new cycle highs) suggest the broader bull trend here is getting back on track.”
“Note that the CAD is the primary under-performer in the G-10 space today, with GBPCAD making marginal new cycle highs earlier in the session just under 1.90.”
“For the balance of the session, the absence of any Canadian domestic data leaves the CAD once again a slave to the flows and technical factors. Though we would note that EIA (DoE) crude inventory data at 10.30 ET warrant attention (we look for an inventory build after last night’s API data—this may be CAD-negative if the data gives the soft-looking WTI another push lower).”
“On the charts, USDCAD has pushed a little higher on the day but yesterday’s peak around 1.25 and subsequent sell-off formed a bearish key reversal session on the daily chart—unless USDCAD can make new highs very quickly, the chances of a more sustained correction in the recent trend higher will rise.”
Key Quotes
“We remain conviction CAD bears from a fundamental perspective—and not just against the USD. Similar considerations (policy and fundamental divergence) apply for GBPCAD and price gains (long-term consolidation break out and a move to new cycle highs) suggest the broader bull trend here is getting back on track.”
“Note that the CAD is the primary under-performer in the G-10 space today, with GBPCAD making marginal new cycle highs earlier in the session just under 1.90.”
“For the balance of the session, the absence of any Canadian domestic data leaves the CAD once again a slave to the flows and technical factors. Though we would note that EIA (DoE) crude inventory data at 10.30 ET warrant attention (we look for an inventory build after last night’s API data—this may be CAD-negative if the data gives the soft-looking WTI another push lower).”
“On the charts, USDCAD has pushed a little higher on the day but yesterday’s peak around 1.25 and subsequent sell-off formed a bearish key reversal session on the daily chart—unless USDCAD can make new highs very quickly, the chances of a more sustained correction in the recent trend higher will rise.”
