Generalising the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies collected in a table as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be concluded:
- between the 1st and 5th of December, the EUR/USD pair expects a sideways trend with a quite high probability of decreasing to the level of 1.2350;
- it seems that the battles of the bulls and the bears are quieting down at the time leading up to Christmas celebrations. Thus the GBP/USD pair most likely expects sideways movement in the 1.5580÷1.5675 corridor, while along with that a tendency of this pair to decrease can be noted;
- the USD/JPY pair, lacking any obvious trends, does not stand out from the general picture either. The main fluctuations will occur around the axis of 118.30. Beside this a growth to the 119.15 mark followed by a rebound to 117.60 and even to 117.10 is possible at the start of the week;
- and, finally, the USD/CHF pair’s medium-term perspective denounces a growth to the 0.9700÷0.9800 marks. The support is located at the level of 0.9620.
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As for last week’s forecast:
- the EUR/USD pair was predicted a sideways trend around the level of 1.2400 and a possible decrease to the level of 1.2350. In reality the pair decreased to the level of 1.2360 for a short period of time and then continued its sideways movement, finishing the month at practically the same mark as it had in the beginning of November - 1.2450;
- regarding the GBP/USD pair a sideways trend was also predicted, with a strengthening volatility in the corridor of 1.5575÷1.5720 towards the end of the week. Concerning the sideways trend and the strengthening of volatility the forecasts came true – the pair finished at the same level as it started in the beginning of the week, while the peak of the fluctuations of the exchange rate came about on Wednesday - Thursday. As for the boundaries of the corridors the experts were mistaken, they turned out to be significantly higher - 1.5620÷1.5820;
- the USD/JPY pair demonstrated twice in one week the promised attempts to conquer the height of 118.75, which is what happened on Friday. But because this happened near the very end of the weekly session, the pair apparently did not have enough time for a serious rebound downwards, which we can now expect in the next one or two weeks.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
