After Australia forbid Huawei Technologies from supplying a 5G mobile network on the grounds of national security risks in August 2018, Chinese authorities have lashed back. They banned Australian shipments of coal to Dalian and prolonged customs clearance in major ports. Australian exports face major losses. Yet the sanction seems limited, as inventories of low-sulphur coking coal used for Chinese steel remain low (1–2 months: Australia supplies 40+% of China’s demand. This will moderate the current fall in the Aussie. Short-term, AUD/USD (1.1331) is expected to continue its decline, approaching 1.1320.
By Vincent Mivelaz