Gamuchirai Zororo Ndawana / 个人资料

In this discussion, we contrast the classical approach to time series cross-validation with modern alternatives that challenge its core assumptions. We expose key blind spots in the traditional method—especially its failure to account for evolving market conditions. To address these gaps, we introduce Effective Memory Cross-Validation (EMCV), a domain-aware approach that questions the long-held belief that more historical data always improves performance.

Trading strategies may be challenging to improve because we often don’t fully understand what the strategy is doing wrong. In this discussion, we introduce linear system identification, a branch of control theory. Linear feedback systems can learn from data to identify a system’s errors and guide its behavior toward intended outcomes. While these methods may not provide fully interpretable explanations, they are far more valuable than having no control system at all. Let’s explore linear system identification and observe how it may help us as algorithmic traders to maintain control over our trading applications.

In this series of articles, we look at the challenges faced by algorithmic traders when deploying machine-learning-powered trading strategies. Some challenges within our community remain unseen because they demand deeper technical understanding. Today’s discussion acts as a springboard toward examining the blind spots of cross-validation in machine learning. Although often treated as routine, this step can easily produce misleading or suboptimal results if handled carelessly. This article briefly revisits the essentials of time series cross-validation to prepare us for more in-depth insight into its hidden blind spots.

This article walks the reader through a reimagined version of the classical Bollinger Band breakout strategy. It identifies key weaknesses in the original approach, such as its well-known susceptibility to false breakouts. The article aims to introduce a possible solution: the Double Bollinger Band trading strategy. This relatively lesser known approach supplements the weaknesses of the classical version and offers a more dynamic perspective on financial markets. It helps us overcome the old limitations defined by the original rules, providing traders with a stronger and more adaptive framework.

Machine learning is often viewed through statistical or linear algebraic lenses, but this article emphasizes a geometric perspective of model predictions. It demonstrates that models do not truly approximate the target but rather map it onto a new coordinate system, creating an inherent misalignment that results in irreducible error. The article proposes that multi-step predictions, comparing the model’s forecasts across different horizons, offer a more effective approach than direct comparisons with the target. By applying this method to a trading model, the article demonstrates significant improvements in profitability and accuracy without changing the underlying model.

Preprocessing is a powerful yet quickly overlooked tuning parameter. It lives in the shadows of its bigger brothers: optimizers and shiny model architectures. Small percentage improvements here can have disproportionately large, compounding effects on profitability and risk. Too often, this largely unexplored science is boiled down to a simple routine, seen only as a means to an end, when in reality it is where signal can be directly amplified, or just as easily destroyed.

This article takes a fresh perspective on a hidden, geometric source of error that quietly shapes every prediction your models make. By rethinking how we measure and apply machine learning forecasts in trading, we reveal how this overlooked perspective can unlock sharper decisions, stronger returns, and a more intelligent way to work with models we thought we already understood.

Financial markets are unpredictable, and trading strategies that look profitable in the past often collapse in real market conditions. This happens because most strategies are fixed once deployed and cannot adapt or learn from their mistakes. By borrowing ideas from control theory, we can use feedback controllers to observe how our strategies interact with markets and adjust their behavior toward profitability. Our results show that adding a feedback controller to a simple moving average strategy improved profits, reduced risk, and increased efficiency, proving that this approach has strong potential for trading applications.

Human traders had long participated in financial markets before the rise of computers, developing rules of thumb that guided their decisions. In this article, we revisit a well-known breakout strategy to test whether such market logic, learned through experience, can hold its own against systematic methods. Our findings show that while the original strategy produced high accuracy, it suffered from instability and poor risk control. By refining the approach, we demonstrate how discretionary insights can be adapted into more robust, algorithmic trading strategies.

This article explores the powerful role of matrix factorization in algorithmic trading, specifically within MQL5 applications. From regression models to multi-target classifiers, we walk through practical examples that demonstrate how easily these techniques can be integrated using built-in MQL5 functions. Whether you're predicting price direction or modeling indicator behavior, this guide lays a strong foundation for building intelligent trading systems using matrix methods.

In this discussion, we will set the foundation for using powerful linear, algebra tools that are implemented in the MQL5 matrix and vector API. For us to make proficient use of this API, we need to have a firm understanding of the principles in linear algebra that govern intelligent use of these methods. This article aims to get the reader an intuitive level of understanding of some of the most important rules of linear algebra that we, as algorithmic traders in MQL5 need,to get started, taking advantage of this powerful library.

Factorization is a mathematical process used to gain insights into the attributes of data. When we apply factorization to large sets of market data—organized in rows and columns—we can uncover patterns and characteristics of the market. Factorization is a powerful tool, and this article will show how you can use it within the MetaTrader 5 terminal, through the MQL5 API, to gain more profound insights into your market data.

In this article, we continue our exploration of building an ensemble of trading strategies and using the MT5 genetic optimizer to tune the strategy parameters. Today, we analyzed the data in Python, showing our model could better predict which strategy would outperform, achieving higher accuracy than forecasting market returns directly. However, when we tested our application with its statistical models, our performance levels fell dismally. We subsequently discovered that the genetic optimizer unfortunately favored highly correlated strategies, prompting us to revise our method to keep vote weights fixed and focus optimization on indicator settings instead.

This article outlines the design of a double moving average crossover strategy that uses signals from a higher timeframe (D1) to guide entries on a lower timeframe (M15), with stop-loss levels calculated from an intermediate risk timeframe (H4). It introduces system constants, custom enumerations, and logic for trend-following and mean-reverting modes, while emphasizing modularity and future optimization using a genetic algorithm. The approach allows for flexible entry and exit conditions, aiming to reduce signal lag and improve trade timing by aligning lower-timeframe entries with higher-timeframe trends.

This article explores how determining the optimal number of strategies in an ensemble can be a complex task that is easier to solve through the use of the MetaTrader 5 genetic optimizer. The MQL5 Cloud is also employed as a key resource for accelerating backtesting and optimization. All in all, our discussion here sets the stage for developing statistical models to evaluate and improve trading strategies based on our initial ensemble results.

Join us for our follow-up discussion, where we will merge our first two trading strategies into an ensemble trading strategy. We shall demonstrate the different schemes possible for combining multiple strategies and also how to exercise control over the parameter space, to ensure that effective optimization remains possible even as our parameter size grows.

Join us in our discussion as we look for additional improvements to make to our moving-average cross over strategy to reduce the lag in our trading strategy to more reliable levels by leveraging our skills in data science. It is a well-studied fact that projecting your data to higher dimensions can at times improve the performance of your machine learning models. We will demonstrate what this practically means for you as a trader, and illustrate how you can weaponize this powerful principle using your MetaTrader 5 Terminal.

How best can we combine multiple strategies to create a powerful ensemble strategy? Join us in this discussion as we look to fit together three different strategies into our trading application. Traders often employ specialized strategies for opening and closing positions, and we want to know if our machines can perform this task better. For our opening discussion, we will get familiar with the faculties of the strategy tester and the principles of OOP we will need for this task.

In this series of articles, we have considered multiple different ways of identifying the best period to use our technical indicators with. Today, we shall demonstrate to the reader how they can instead perform the opposite logic, that is to say, instead of picking the single best period to use, we will demonstrate to the reader how to employ all available periods effectively. This approach reduces the amount of data discarded, and offers alternative use cases for machine learning algorithms beyond ordinary price prediction.

The article explores why trading results can differ significantly between brokers, even when using the same strategy and financial symbol, due to decentralized pricing and data discrepancies. The piece helps MQL5 developers understand why their products may receive mixed reviews on the MQL5 Marketplace, and urges developers to tailor their approaches to specific brokers to ensure transparent and reproducible outcomes. This could grow to become an important domain-bound best practice that will serve our community well if the practice were to be widely adopted.