【Technical Analysis】August 20, 2026

【Technical Analysis】August 20, 2026

20 8月 2026, 08:04
Masayuki Sakamoto
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【Technical Analysis】August 20, 2026

■ Overall Market Summary

The main themes in the current market are broad U.S. dollar weakness, euro strength, pound strength, Australian dollar strength, New Zealand dollar strength, Swiss franc strength, higher crude oil prices, and short-term weakness in major equity indices.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are showing strong buy signals across all timeframes from the 5-minute chart through the daily chart.

USD/CHF is showing strong sell signals across all timeframes, confirming broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and notable Swiss franc strength.

USD/JPY remains weak in the short term, with strong sell signals on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts and a sell signal on the hourly chart. However, the daily chart is now neutral, meaning the broader downtrend is no longer as clear as it was previously.

Cross-yen pairs are notably strong.

EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and CHF/JPY are showing strong buy signals across nearly all major timeframes.

This indicates that while USD/JPY is weak, the euro, pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are currently outperforming the yen.

In commodities, WTI crude oil remains one of the strongest markets, with strong buy signals across all timeframes.

Gold remains in a strong daily uptrend, although its shorter-term momentum has weakened.

Silver is showing strong selling on the short-term charts while remaining strongly bullish on the hourly and daily charts. This is a typical short-term correction within a larger bullish trend.

Equity markets remain under pressure.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DAX, FTSE 100, and CAC 40 are all showing strong selling pressure from the short-term charts through the hourly timeframe.

The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are especially weak because their daily signals have also turned bearish.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 is showing a strong short-term rebound, although the hourly and daily trends remain neutral.

■ Currency Market

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading at 158.46.

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong sell signals, the hourly chart shows a sell signal, and the daily chart is neutral.

Short-term dollar selling and yen buying remain clear.

However, unlike the previous session, the daily chart is no longer bearish.

This suggests that while short-term downside pressure remains, the broader trend has become less decisive.

With USD/JPY trading in the mid-158 area, the short-term strategy remains biased toward selling rallies.

However, if the pair stabilizes around the 158 area, a corrective rebound could develop.

Rather than chasing the market lower, it may be preferable to wait for a rebound and then confirm renewed selling pressure.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF is trading at 0.7994.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong sell signals.

This is one of the clearest bearish setups in the FX market.

Dollar selling and Swiss franc buying are fully aligned across all timeframes.

The pair has also broken below the psychological 0.8000 level.

The preferred strategy remains selling rallies.

However, because all timeframes are aligned to the downside, the pair may also be vulnerable to short-term oversold rebounds.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1690.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

Euro buying and dollar selling are completely aligned.

The pair is approaching the psychological 1.1700 level and remains one of the strongest dollar pairs in the market.

The preferred strategy is buying dips.

However, with 1.1700 nearby, chasing the market higher may be less attractive than waiting for a short-term pullback and renewed upward momentum.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading at 1.3627.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

Pound strength and dollar weakness are very clear.

Like EUR/USD, the pair has strong bullish alignment across all major timeframes.

EUR/GBP is weak in the short term, which suggests that the pound is currently outperforming the euro on shorter timeframes.

The preferred strategy remains buying dips.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD

AUD/USD is trading at 0.7123.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

The short-term correction seen previously has ended, and the pair has returned to full bullish alignment.

This is a strong continuation setup within the daily uptrend.

The preferred strategy is buying dips.

NZD/USD is trading at 0.5954.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

Like AUD/USD, this is a fully aligned bullish trend.

AUD/NZD is trading at 1.1963.

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts show strong sell signals.

This suggests that both the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are strong against the U.S. dollar, but the New Zealand dollar remains stronger on a relative basis.


■ Cross-Yen Market

Cross-yen pairs are broadly strong.

USD/JPY remains weak in the short term, but strength in other major currencies is more than offsetting that yen strength.

As a result, most cross-yen pairs are rising.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading at 185.24.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

The short-term correction seen previously has ended, and the pair has returned to full bullish alignment.

EUR/USD is also strongly bullish across all timeframes, confirming broad euro strength.

The preferred strategy is buying dips.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY is trading at 215.93.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

The pair has improved significantly from the previous short-term bearish setup.

GBP/USD is also strongly bullish across all timeframes.

Pound strength is currently overpowering weakness in USD/JPY.

The preferred strategy remains buying dips.

AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY is trading at 112.86.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

AUD/USD is also fully bullish.

This confirms that Australian dollar strength is broad-based.

AUD/JPY is one of the clearest bullish cross-yen setups.

The preferred strategy is buying dips.

NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY is trading at 94.34.

The 5-minute chart shows a strong buy signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and both the hourly and daily charts show strong buy signals.

Only the 15-minute chart is out of alignment.

The broader trend remains clearly bullish.

NZD/USD is also strongly bullish across all timeframes.

A short-term pullback could provide a potential buying opportunity.

CAD/JPY

CAD/JPY is trading at 114.98.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

WTI crude oil is also strongly bullish across all timeframes, providing additional support for the Canadian dollar.

This combination makes CAD/JPY one of the stronger bullish setups.

The preferred strategy is buying dips.

CHF/JPY

CHF/JPY is trading at 198.23.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

USD/CHF is also strongly bearish across all timeframes, confirming broad Swiss franc strength.

The fact that CHF/JPY is rising despite weakness in USD/JPY indicates that the Swiss franc is currently outperforming the yen.

The preferred strategy is buying dips.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8579.

The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute chart shows a sell signal, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart shows a strong buy signal.

In the short term, the pound is stronger than the euro.

However, the daily chart still favors the euro.

This can be viewed as a short-term correction within a larger daily uptrend.

For a daily-trend long setup, it would be better to wait until the short-term charts turn back higher.

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF is trading at 0.9345.

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong buy signals, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart shows a buy signal.

Euro buying remains dominant in the short term, but the hourly chart lacks direction.

Compared with the previous session, momentum has weakened.

It remains a potential buy-on-dips candidate, but confirmation from the hourly chart would improve the setup.


■ Commodity Market

Gold

Gold is trading at $4,489.87.

The 5-minute chart shows a buy signal, the 15-minute chart shows a buy signal, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart shows a strong buy signal.

Gold futures are trading at $4,547.06.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are neutral, while the daily chart shows a strong buy signal.

The broader daily uptrend remains intact.

However, short-term momentum is no longer as strong as it was previously.

The market appears to be consolidating near recent highs.

Gold remains a buy-on-dips candidate from a daily perspective, but it may be better to wait for the hourly chart to turn bullish again before entering.

Silver

Silver is trading at 66.5870.

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong sell signals, while the hourly and daily charts show strong buy signals.

Silver futures are showing the same structure.

This is a classic short-term correction inside a larger bullish trend.

The broader trend remains bullish, but profit-taking is currently strong in the short term.

Rather than chasing the short-term decline, it may be preferable to wait for the 5-minute and 15-minute charts to turn bullish again.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is trading at $85.68.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts all show strong buy signals.

This is the clearest bullish commodity setup in the market.

The uptrend is fully aligned from the short-term charts through the daily chart.

The preferred strategy is buying dips.

However, after a sustained advance into the upper $85 area, it may be safer to wait for a pullback rather than chase the market higher.

Natural Gas

Natural gas is trading at 2.751.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is neutral.

This is a sharp reversal from the previous bullish short-term setup.

The short-term trend has clearly turned bearish.

Because the daily chart is still neutral, this is not yet a confirmed long-term downtrend.

However, the short-term strategy currently favors selling rallies.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD is trading at $69,597.

The 5-minute chart shows a sell signal, the 15-minute chart shows a buy signal, and both the hourly and daily charts show strong buy signals.

The medium-term and daily trends remain strongly bullish.

Only the very short-term chart is showing a correction.

This can be viewed as a minor pullback within a larger bullish trend.

BTC remains a buy-on-dips candidate.

A return to a buy signal on the 5-minute chart would strengthen the case for renewed upside.


■ Equity Market

U.S. Equities

The Dow Jones is trading at 53,463.05.

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts show buy signals.

Among the major U.S. indices, the Dow remains relatively resilient.

Short-term direction is limited, but the broader trend is still constructive.

The S&P 500 is trading at 7,707.98.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts all show strong sell signals, while the daily chart still shows a buy signal.

This is a strong short-term correction within a larger daily uptrend.

The short-term bias favors selling rallies, but traders looking to buy in line with the daily trend should wait for the hourly selling pressure to fade.

The Nasdaq 100 is trading at 29,426.02.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts all show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is neutral.

The Nasdaq is weaker than the S&P 500.

The daily buy signal has disappeared, indicating stronger pressure on technology stocks.

The short-term bias favors selling rallies.

European Equities

The DAX is trading at 25,997.21.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts all show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is neutral.

The short-term and hourly downtrend is clear.

The FTSE 100 is trading at 10,721.44.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts all show strong sell signals, while the daily chart shows a sell signal.

This is one of the weakest major equity indices.

The CAC 40 is trading at 8,504.69.

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts all show strong sell signals, while the daily chart also shows a sell signal.

Like the FTSE 100, the CAC 40 is weak across both short-term and daily timeframes.

Among European indices, the clearest sell-on-rallies setups are currently the FTSE 100 and CAC 40.

Japanese Equities

The Nikkei 225 is trading at 66,278.00.

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong buy signals, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral.

This represents a strong short-term rebound from the previous weakness.

However, because the hourly and daily charts remain neutral, the move has not yet developed into a confirmed broader uptrend.

For now, it is best viewed as a short-term recovery.

A bullish turn on the hourly chart would strengthen the case for continued upside.


■ Strength Ranking

S Rank

EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY
CHF/JPY
WTI Crude Oil

A Rank

USD/CHF short bias
NZD/JPY
BTC on hourly and daily charts
Gold on daily chart
Silver on hourly and daily charts
EUR/CHF short-term
Dow Jones on hourly and daily charts

B Rank

EUR/GBP daily chart
Nikkei 225 short-term
Gold futures daily chart
AUD/NZD short bias


■ Weakness Ranking

S Rank

USD/CHF
Natural Gas short-term
FTSE 100
CAC 40

A Rank

USD/JPY short-term
S&P 500 short-term
Nasdaq 100 short-term
DAX short-term
Silver short-term
AUD/NZD

B Rank

EUR/GBP short-term
Gold hourly chart
Gold futures short-term
Nasdaq 100 daily chart


■ Market Theme

The main market theme is broad U.S. dollar weakness, broad strength in cross-yen pairs, higher crude oil prices, and short-term weakness in U.S. and European equities.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are all showing strong buy signals across all timeframes.

USD/CHF is also showing strong sell signals across all timeframes.

This confirms that dollar weakness is broad-based rather than limited to a single currency.

USD/JPY remains weak in the short term, but its daily chart is neutral.

This means the yen is not necessarily the strongest currency overall.

Instead, the euro, pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are outperforming the yen.

As a result, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and CHF/JPY are all showing strong bullish trends.

In commodities, WTI crude oil is the strongest market, with full bullish alignment across all timeframes.

Gold remains in a strong daily uptrend, although its short-term momentum has weakened.

Silver is experiencing a short-term correction within a larger bullish trend.

Equity markets are clearly divided.

The S&P 500 remains bullish on the daily chart but is undergoing a strong short-term correction.

The Nasdaq 100 and DAX have weakened to neutral on the daily chart.

The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are bearish even on the daily timeframe.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 is rebounding strongly in the short term.


■ Trading Strategy

Buy Bias

EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY
CHF/JPY
WTI Crude Oil

Buy-on-Dips Candidates

NZD/JPY
Gold on the daily chart
Gold futures on the daily chart
Silver on the hourly and daily charts
BTC
EUR/CHF
Dow Jones

Sell-on-Rallies Candidates

USD/JPY short-term
USD/CHF
Natural Gas
S&P 500 short-term
Nasdaq 100
DAX
FTSE 100
CAC 40
AUD/NZD

Markets Requiring Caution

USD/JPY remains bearish in the short term, but the daily chart is neutral.

Unlike the previous session, the pair is no longer showing a fully aligned bearish trend.

If the market stabilizes in the 158 area, a sharp corrective rebound is possible.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are showing strong buy signals across all timeframes.

These are very strong dollar-selling trends, but full alignment across all timeframes can also create short-term overbought conditions.

It may therefore be safer to wait for pullbacks rather than chase prices higher.

Cross-yen pairs have reversed sharply from the previous short-term weakness.

EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and CHF/JPY are now showing strong buy signals across nearly all timeframes.

Silver shows a clear conflict between short-term selling and medium- to long-term buying.

Traders following the daily trend should wait for the short-term selling pressure to fade.

Gold remains strongly bullish on the daily chart, but the hourly chart is neutral.

The larger trend remains positive, but momentum has weakened compared with the previous session.

WTI crude oil is strongly bullish across all timeframes.

However, after a sustained advance, waiting for a pullback may offer better risk management than chasing the market higher.

The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are bearish even on the daily chart.

These are currently the clearest sell-on-rallies candidates among the major European equity indices.


■ Conclusion

The current market is centered on broad U.S. dollar weakness, broad strength in cross-yen pairs, higher crude oil prices, and short-term weakness in U.S. and European equity indices.

The strongest markets are:

EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY
CHF/JPY
WTI Crude Oil

The weaker markets are:

USD/CHF
USD/JPY short-term
Natural Gas
S&P 500 short-term
Nasdaq 100
DAX
FTSE 100
CAC 40

The U.S. dollar is clearly weak across the FX market, but the yen itself is not the strongest currency.

USD/JPY is falling, while most cross-yen pairs are rising.

This highlights the strength of the euro, pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc.

Overall, the preferred approach is to buy dips in the strongest dollar pairs, cross-yen pairs, and WTI crude oil, while looking to sell rallies in USD/CHF, short-term USD/JPY, Natural Gas, and the weaker U.S. and European equity indices.