Spot Prices
EUR/USD: 1.1672
USD/JPY: 158.69
GBP/USD: 1.3601
USD/CHF: 0.8000
USD/CAD: 1.3798
AUD/USD: 0.7114
NZD/USD: 0.5950
EUR/GBP: 0.8579
EUR/USD
・1.1500 (€4.2 billion) Largest
・1.1530 (€761 million)
・1.1540 (€665 million)
・1.1545 (€730 million)
● 1.1550 (€2.7 billion)
・1.1565 (€579 million)
● 1.1600 (€1.9 billion)
● 1.1650 (€1.1 billion)
・1.1675 (€653 million)
・1.1680 (€681 million)
The current price is 1.1672.
Today’s largest option is:
● 1.1500 (€4.2 billion) Largest
However, this level is around 172 pips below the current price, so its direct pinning effect into the New York cut is likely to be limited.
More important in the short term are:
1.1675 — around 3 pips above spot
1.1680 — around 8 pips above spot
Although these are not the largest expiries, they are extremely close to the current price.
This means EUR/USD could remain attracted to, or pinned around, the 1.1675–1.1680 area into the New York cut.
A clear break above 1.1680 could reduce the short-term option-related resistance and open the way for further upside.
On the downside,
1.1650 (€1.1 billion)
is the first important level.
Below that, sizeable options are positioned at 1.1600, 1.1550, and 1.1500.
EUR/USD is therefore the currency pair most likely to be influenced by option expiries today.
USD/JPY
・157.20 ($793 million)
● 158.00 ($1.6 billion)
・159.00 ($985 million)
● 160.00 ($1.8 billion) Largest
・160.05 ($560 million)
・160.25 ($654 million)
The current price is 158.69.
Today’s largest option is:
● 160.00 ($1.8 billion) Largest
However, this level is around 131 pips above the current price, so its direct influence into today’s New York cut is somewhat limited.
The more important short-term level is:
159.00 — around 31 pips above spot
Because it is relatively close to the current price, a rebound in USD/JPY could attract the pair toward 159.00.
On the downside,
158.00 ($1.6 billion)
is around 69 pips below spot.
If USD/JPY falls toward the lower 158 area, the large 158.00 expiry could become increasingly important.
In other words, the key short-term range today is:
158.00–159.00
A move toward 160.00 would first require a clear break above 159.00.
GBP/USD
There are no notable large option expiries today.
The current price is 1.3601.
GBP/USD is therefore more likely to be driven by the broader U.S. dollar trend and movements in U.S. Treasury yields rather than option-related flows.
USD/CHF
● 0.8050 ($793 million) Largest
・0.8200 ($612 million)
The current price is 0.8000.
The 0.8050 level is around 50 pips above spot.
Because it is relatively close, a stronger U.S. dollar could pull USD/CHF toward:
0.8050
The 0.8200 expiry is around 200 pips above spot, so its direct impact today is limited.
USD/CAD
● 1.3900 ($756 million) Largest
The current price is 1.3798.
The 1.3900 level is around 102 pips above spot.
Because of the distance, its direct pinning effect into today’s New York cut is limited.
However, if U.S. dollar buying and Canadian dollar selling strengthen, 1.3900 could become an upside target.
AUD/USD
● 0.7200 (A$900 million) Largest
The current price is 0.7114.
The 0.7200 level is around 86 pips above spot.
Its direct pinning effect is therefore somewhat limited, but if AUD/USD strengthens, 0.7200 could become an upside target.
NZD/USD
● 0.5740 (NZ$1.4 billion) Largest
The current price is 0.5950.
The 0.5740 level is around 210 pips below spot.
Because it is far from the current price, its direct influence today is limited.
It should mainly be viewed as a medium-term downside reference if the New Zealand dollar weakens significantly.
EUR/GBP
● 0.8525 (€854 million) Largest
The current price is 0.8579.
The 0.8525 level is around 54 pips below spot.
Because it is relatively close, a decline in EUR/GBP could increase the pull toward 0.8525.
If the pair breaks below the 0.8550 area, 0.8525 could become the next important downside level.
Next Trading Day — August 21
EUR/USD
● 1.1500 (€11.0 billion) Largest
・1.1550 (€1.3 billion)
・1.1555 (€1.0 billion)
・1.1595 (€878 million)
・1.1600 (€1.1 billion)
・1.1625 (€895 million)
・1.1640 (€668 million)
● 1.1685 (€1.1 billion)
・1.1800 (€1.4 billion)
The current price is 1.1672.
The largest option for the next trading day is:
● 1.1500 (€11.0 billion) Largest
This is an exceptionally large expiry, but it is around 172 pips below the current price.
Therefore, in the short term, the more important level is:
● 1.1685 (€1.1 billion)
This is only around 13 pips above spot.
That means EUR/USD could be attracted toward, or pinned near, 1.1685 into the next New York cut.
On the downside, option levels are stacked at:
1.1640
↓
1.1625
↓
1.1600
↓
1.1595
↓
1.1550
↓
1.1500
If EUR/USD falls sharply, the very large €11.0 billion expiry at 1.1500 could eventually become a major downside magnet.
USD/JPY
・158.00 ($614 million)
● 159.00 ($770 million) Largest
The current price is 158.69.
The largest option for the next trading day is:
● 159.00 ($770 million) Largest
It is only around 31 pips above the current price.
This makes 159.00 a likely short-term attraction point into the next trading day.
At the same time, 158.00 is around 69 pips below spot.
Therefore, the key range remains:
158.00–159.00
GBP/USD
There are no notable large option expiries.
USD/CHF
There are no notable large option expiries.
USD/CAD
● 1.3900 ($613 million) Largest
The current price is 1.3798.
The level is around 102 pips above spot.
Although it is still some distance away, the fact that 1.3900 appears in both today’s and tomorrow’s expiries means it should remain an important upside reference if USD/CAD strengthens.
AUD/USD
There are no notable large option expiries.
NZD/USD
There are no notable large option expiries.
EUR/GBP
There are no notable large option expiries.
Overall Structure
・The most important level today is EUR/USD 1.1675–1.1680. It is only 3–8 pips away from the current price, making it the most likely area for short-term pinning into the New York cut.
・EUR/USD also has a dense concentration of sizeable options below spot at 1.1650, 1.1600, 1.1550, and 1.1500.
・USD/JPY is currently at 158.69, with 159.00 only around 31 pips above. This makes 159.00 the most relevant short-term upside level.
・USD/JPY also has large expiries at 158.00 and 160.00, creating a broader option range between 158.00 and 160.00.
・EUR/GBP 0.8525 and USD/CHF 0.8050 are also relatively close to spot and may become important if price moves in their direction.
・For the next trading day, EUR/USD has an exceptionally large €11.0 billion option at 1.1500.
・However, the most important short-term level for tomorrow is 1.1685, which is only around 13 pips from the current price.
Trading Strategy
EUR/USD
・Focus first on a possible pinning or return toward 1.1675–1.1680 today.
・A clear break above 1.1680 could weaken option-related resistance and allow further upside.
・If the pair falls, 1.1650 is the first key downside level.
・A break below 1.1650 would put 1.1600 and then 1.1550 into focus.
・For the next trading day, 1.1685 remains very close to spot and should stay important.
・If a larger decline develops, the €11.0 billion expiry at 1.1500 becomes the major downside target.
USD/JPY
・From the current 158.69 area, watch for a move back toward 159.00.
・A clear break above 159.00 would increase the possibility of a move toward 160.00.
・On the downside, the $1.6 billion expiry at 158.00 is the key support-related option level.
・The 158.00–159.00 range is likely to remain important into the next trading day.
USD/CHF
・If U.S. dollar buying strengthens, watch for a move toward 0.8050.
・Price action around 0.8050 would then become important.
EUR/GBP
・On the downside, watch for a move toward 0.8525.
・A break below 0.8550 would make 0.8525 increasingly important.
USD/CAD
・Although 1.3900 is still some distance from spot, the level has expiries on both today and the next trading day.
・If USD/CAD strengthens, 1.3900 remains the key upside target.
Conclusion
Today’s key levels are:
● EUR/USD 1.1675–1.1680
● USD/JPY 159.00
● USD/JPY 158.00 ($1.6 billion)
● USD/CHF 0.8050
● EUR/GBP 0.8525
In terms of absolute size,
EUR/USD 1.1500 (€4.2 billion)
and
USD/JPY 160.00 ($1.8 billion)
are the largest expiries today.
However, because they are relatively far from the current market price, their immediate influence is more limited.
Based on distance from spot, EUR/USD 1.1675–1.1680 is the most important area today.
With EUR/USD currently at 1.1672, these levels are only 3–8 pips away, making them the most likely area for price attraction or pinning into the New York cut.
For USD/JPY, 159.00 is only around 31 pips above spot, so a recovery toward that level remains a key scenario.
Looking ahead to the next trading day, the standout level is:
● EUR/USD 1.1500 (€11.0 billion)
This is an exceptionally large expiry.
However, because it remains far below spot, the market should first be monitored around the nearer levels of 1.1685, 1.1640, 1.1625, and 1.1600.
Only if EUR/USD enters a deeper decline would the enormous 1.1500 expiry become a major market focus.
