【Technical Analysis】11 August 2026
■ Summary
The current market is centered on rising equities, precious-metals strength, Australian-dollar strength, and a rebound in oil.
In FX, AUD/USD is showing strong buying across all timeframes, making it the clearest bullish dollar pair. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD remain buy-favored on the daily chart, but selling is appearing on the hourly charts, creating some divergence between short-term and daily direction.
USD/JPY has risen to 159.24. However, the 5-minute and 15-minute charts are bearish, the hourly chart is strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bearish. This is a complex structure: short-term upside is heavy, the hourly chart shows a rebound, and the daily chart still warrants caution over selling rallies.
Among yen crosses, AUD/JPY is buy-favored across all timeframes and is the strongest cross-yen pair. In contrast, EUR/JPY is strongly bearish in the short term, while CHF/JPY is strongly bearish on the daily chart. Yen crosses are therefore not uniformly strong.
In commodities, gold and silver maintain strong daily-chart buying. Silver has risen above $65 and remains a strong daily buy despite hourly-chart neutrality. WTI crude oil has rebounded to 83.61 and has turned strongly bullish on both the hourly and daily charts. Natural gas, however, remains broadly weak and warrants caution over selling rallies.
In equities, the Dow, S&P 500, DAX, UK 100, CAC 40, and Nikkei remain strong on the daily chart, sustaining the broader equity uptrend. The NASDAQ 100 is a strong daily buy but shows strong short-term selling, so caution is needed over a near-term adjustment in technology shares.
■ Currency Markets
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is at 159.24.
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a sell.
The pair has risen from the 158 range into the 159 range, with the hourly chart showing continued buying back into USD/JPY.
However, short-term selling is emerging and the daily chart remains bearish.
From a broader perspective, this is naturally viewed as a rebound following the decline from the 163 range.
The 159 range is also a level where intervention concerns can begin to re-emerge.
Rather than chasing hourly-chart buying, it is preferable to wait for short-term selling to settle, or to confirm whether upside momentum weakens and selling rallies resume.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is at 0.8106.
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a buy.
Short-term selling is appearing, but dollar buying remains intact on the hourly and daily charts.
As with USD/JPY, short-term and medium-term direction are divided.
For a long position, it is preferable to first confirm that the short-term selling has stopped.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is at 1.1538.
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a buy.
The daily chart retains the euro-buying and dollar-selling trend, but the hourly chart shows strong selling.
There is a short-term rebound, but considering the hourly weakness, caution is needed when chasing higher prices.
For long positions, it is preferable to confirm whether the hourly chart improves from neutral to buy territory again.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is at 1.3503.
The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
Sterling buying remains very strong on the daily chart, with the pair holding above 1.3500.
However, hourly-chart selling suggests that the advance is pausing in the short term.
The broader structure still favors buying on pullbacks, but it is preferable to wait for the short-term adjustment to settle.
AUD and NZD
AUD/USD is at 0.7061.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strong buys.
It is the strongest of the current dollar pairs.
Australian-dollar buying and dollar selling are clear, with direction aligned from short-term through daily timeframes.
Buying on pullbacks remains favored.
NZD/USD is at 0.5880.
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is a buy, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
Although the daily chart is strong, the hourly chart is bearish.
Compared with AUD/USD, NZD/USD is somewhat less stable.
AUD/NZD is a strong hourly buy, while the daily chart is neutral.
The Australian dollar is currently outperforming the New Zealand dollar.
Yen Crosses
Strength varies across yen crosses.
The stronger pairs are:
・AUD/JPY
・NZD/JPY in the short term
・GBP/JPY on the daily chart
・CAD/JPY on the hourly chart
AUD/JPY is at 112.43.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys, while the daily chart is also a buy.
It is the strongest of the yen crosses in this analysis.
Australian-dollar strength is pronounced, supported by the bullish structure in both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.
NZD/JPY is at 93.62.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral.
It is strong in the short term, but broader direction remains somewhat unclear.
GBP/JPY is at 215.01.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly and daily charts are buys.
The daily chart remains resilient, but short-term profit-taking is emerging.
EUR/JPY is at 183.73.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral.
EUR/JPY is weak in the short term, and confirmation of a short-term reversal is needed before considering long positions.
CHF/JPY is at 196.44.
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, while the daily chart is a strong sell.
Short-term buying and daily-chart selling are in conflict, creating an unstable directional structure.
CAD/JPY is at 114.29.
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a buy.
Short-term selling is emerging, but the structure remains resilient from the hourly chart upward.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is at 0.8546.
The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
The daily chart clearly favors euro selling and sterling buying.
GBP/USD is strong on the daily chart, and sterling is outperforming the euro.
EUR/GBP currently favors selling rallies.
■ Commodity Markets
Gold
XAU/USD is at 4,379.02.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
Gold futures are at 4,437.34, with the 5-minute and 15-minute charts showing strong buying and the daily chart also a strong buy.
Gold remains at elevated levels and the broader structure favors buying.
However, the hourly chart is neutral, making a post-rally adjustment more likely.
The bullish direction remains favorable, but confirming a pullback is preferable to chasing highs.
Silver
XAG/USD is at 65.0220.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
Silver futures also show strong buying on the 5-minute, 15-minute, and daily charts.
Silver has risen into the $65 range and stands out for its strength within precious metals.
Buying on pullbacks remains favored, but caution is needed over profit-taking after the sharp advance.
Oil
WTI crude oil is at 83.61.
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are strong buys.
Oil has improved sharply from its previous weakness and has recovered above $80.
With both hourly and daily charts now strongly bullish, oil has again turned buy-favored.
However, the 5-minute chart shows strong selling, so caution is needed over a short-term adjustment at elevated levels.
For long positions, it is preferable to wait for short-term selling to settle and then look for a pullback entry.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is at 2.753.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly and daily charts are sells.
Natural gas has weakened again after the previous short-term rebound.
Overall, selling rallies remains favored.
While oil is regaining strength, natural gas remains weak, creating a clear divergence within the energy market.
BTC
BTC/USD is at $64,302.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral.
Short-term buying is emerging, but the daily chart has not yet returned to a clearly bullish structure.
Momentum has slowed after the previous advance, and short-term buying is currently conflicting with daily-chart neutrality.
For long positions, it is preferable to confirm whether the daily chart improves back into buy territory.
■ Equity Markets
U.S. Equities
The Dow is at 53,975.98.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
It is one of the more stable bullish U.S. equity indices.
Buying on pullbacks remains favored.
The S&P 500 is at 7,753.11.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are buys, while the hourly and daily charts are strong buys.
The uptrend continues, with buying remaining dominant.
The NASDAQ 100 is at 29,621.80.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly chart is a buy and the daily chart is a strong buy.
Technology shares remain strong in the broader trend, but short-term profit-taking is emerging.
For long positions, it is preferable to wait for the short-term selling pressure to settle.
European Equities
The DAX is at 26,316.77.
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
The daily chart remains strong, but momentum has weakened somewhat in the short-term and hourly timeframes.
The UK 100 is at 10,866.33.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a buy.
It remains resilient among European indices, but is not as clearly strong as the DAX or CAC 40.
The CAC 40 is at 8,715.15.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
The daily chart remains strong, making it a candidate for buying on pullbacks.
Japanese Equities
The Nikkei is at 66,970.22.
The 5-minute chart is a buy, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strong buys.
It is one of the strongest equity indices in this analysis.
It continues to hold near highs, with buying on pullbacks favored.
However, as it is trading at elevated levels, it is preferable to wait for a short-term adjustment and renewed upside rather than entering impulsively.
■ Strength Ranking
S Rank
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY
XAU/USD
XAG/USD
Dow
S&P 500
Nikkei
A Rank
GBP/USD daily chart
NZD/USD daily chart
WTI crude oil
CAC 40 daily chart
DAX daily chart
GBP/JPY daily chart
B Rank
EUR/USD daily chart
NZD/JPY short term
CAD/JPY hourly chart
BTC short term
UK 100 daily chart
EUR/CHF daily chart
■ Weakness Ranking
S Rank
EUR/GBP
Natural gas
EUR/JPY short term
GBP/JPY short term
CAD/JPY short term
NASDAQ 100 short term
A Rank
USD/JPY short term
USD/JPY daily chart
USD/CHF short term
EUR/CHF short term
NZD/USD hourly chart
BTC daily-chart neutrality
B Rank
CHF/JPY daily chart
AUD/NZD short term
DAX hourly-chart neutrality
UK 100 hourly-chart neutrality
■ Market Themes
The main themes are rising equities, precious-metals strength, Australian-dollar strength, and an oil rebound.
AUD/USD is a strong buy across all timeframes, highlighting the strength of the Australian dollar. AUD/JPY is also broadly strong, making Australian-dollar buying a major theme.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD are buy-favored on the daily chart, but selling or neutrality is evident on hourly charts. This creates some divergence across dollar pairs.
USD/JPY has risen into the 159 range, but short-term and daily-chart selling remains. The hourly rebound is conflicting with caution over selling rallies in the broader trend.
Gold and silver remain strong near high levels, while WTI crude oil has rebounded into the $83 range and turned strongly bullish on the hourly and daily charts.
Natural gas remains weak, creating a clear contrast with oil.
In equity markets, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nikkei remain strong, sustaining the broader equity rally. The NASDAQ 100 is strong on the daily chart but is undergoing a short-term adjustment.
■ Trading Strategy
Buy-Favored
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY
XAU/USD
XAG/USD
Dow
S&P 500
Nikkei
Buy-on-Pullbacks Candidates
GBP/USD daily chart
NZD/USD daily chart
WTI crude oil
CAC 40 daily chart
DAX daily chart
GBP/JPY daily chart
EUR/USD daily chart
Sell-on-Rallies Candidates
EUR/GBP
Natural gas
EUR/JPY short term
GBP/JPY short term
CAD/JPY short term
NASDAQ 100 short term
USD/JPY short term
Markets Requiring Caution
USD/JPY has risen into the 159 range, but selling remains on both the 5-minute and daily charts. The hourly rebound is strong, but the broader trend still warrants caution over selling rallies.
The 159 range is also a level where intervention concerns can become more prominent. USD/JPY longs should be treated as short-term positions, and chasing highs requires caution.
AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are exceptionally strong, making Australian-dollar buying the main theme. However, following the sharp short-term advance, confirming a pullback should take priority.
Gold and silver are strong daily-chart buys but are trading at elevated levels. The bullish direction remains favorable, but it is more natural to seek renewed upside after a short-term adjustment than to chase prices.
WTI crude oil has improved to strong buying on the hourly and daily charts. However, strong short-term selling is appearing, so it is preferable to wait for a pullback to form.
The NASDAQ 100 remains a strong daily buy but shows strong short-term selling. The bullish direction is intact, but caution is needed over near-term profit-taking.
■ Summary
The current market is centered on rising equities, precious-metals strength, Australian-dollar strength, and an oil rebound.
The strongest markets are AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, XAU/USD, XAG/USD, the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nikkei.
EUR/GBP, natural gas, short-term EUR/JPY, short-term GBP/JPY, short-term CAD/JPY, and short-term NASDAQ 100 are weak and warrant caution over selling rallies.
Overall, the preferred approach is to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks in strong Australian-dollar pairs, precious metals, U.S. and Japanese equities, and oil, while considering sell-on-rallies setups in EUR/GBP, natural gas, selected short-term yen crosses, and the NASDAQ 100.
