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📊 Concerns Grow Over Prolonged Middle East Conflict — Stronger Dollar, Weaker Yen, and Rising Intervention Risk

12 3月 2026, 10:38
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📊 Concerns Grow Over Prolonged Middle East Conflict — Stronger Dollar, Weaker Yen, and Rising Intervention Risk

■ Market Overview

As tensions in the Middle East show signs of prolonging, financial markets continue to see safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar.

Rising concerns over higher oil prices are driving the following market dynamics:

  • Stronger U.S. dollar

  • Weaker Japanese yen

  • Bond prices falling (yields rising)

  • Downward pressure on equities

■ Middle East Situation

Although the United States and Israel are considered militarily dominant, there is no clear outlook for the end of the conflict.

Key concerns include:

  • Reports of naval mines deployed in the Strait of Hormuz

  • Continued danger for commercial shipping

  • Ongoing risk to global oil supply

The Group of Seven (G7) has agreed to release large volumes of strategic petroleum reserves, but markets remain uncertain whether this will fully offset potential supply disruptions.

■ Foreign Exchange Market

In the Tokyo session, USD/JPY rose to around 159.24.

This level is widely viewed as the zone where intervention by the Japanese authorities may become more likely.

The current yen weakness is seen as “bad yen depreciation” driven by rising import costs due to higher oil prices.

As a result, markets are increasingly sensitive to:

  • Official exchange-rate checks by authorities

  • Direct currency intervention

  • Expectations of potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan

■ Market Characteristics

The underlying trend in FX markets remains:

Safe-haven U.S. dollar buying during geopolitical stress.

However, markets are also characterized by high sensitivity and volatility, as movements are strongly influenced by:

  • Middle East news

  • Oil prices

  • Government responses

■ Key Events Today

U.S. Economic Data

  • Initial Jobless Claims
    Forecast: 215,000

  • Housing Starts

  • Building Permits

  • Trade Balance

Movements in U.S. yields alongside these releases could influence the direction of the dollar.

Other Global Data

  • Sweden CPI

  • Turkey Current Account

  • Turkey Policy Rate

  • South Africa Current Account

  • India CPI

  • Israel Trade Balance

Central Bank Events

Speeches from:

  • Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England

  • Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve

  • François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France

In addition:

  • U.S. 30-Year Treasury Auction ($22B)

This auction will be an important gauge of dollar sentiment and bond market demand.

■ Summary

The dominant market theme remains:

“Middle East conflict × Oil prices × Stronger dollar.”

USD/JPY is now approaching levels associated with potential intervention, meaning the market could react strongly to:

  • Developments in the Middle East

  • Oil price movements

  • Actions or signals from the Japanese government

High market volatility is likely to persist for the time being.


#initial, Jobless, Claims