【Weekly P/L】 -$18,466｜Dollar Strength Continues, Currency Markets Swayed by Tariff Talks and Elections
【Weekly P/L】 -$18,466｜Dollar Strength Continues, Currency Markets Swayed by Tariff Talks and Elections
Trading during the second week of July 2025 focused exclusively on EUR/USD. While position volume was limited due to an emphasis on risk management, a key misread led to a final loss of $18,466.
🔍 Outlook for Next Week (Week of July 14)
💵 USD/JPY: Can Strong U.S. Data Cement the Trend?
The upcoming week will bring a slew of key U.S. economic releases—including CPI, PPI, retail sales, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. If the numbers exceed expectations, USD/JPY could resume its climb toward the 150 level.
Additionally, with the Trump administration extending the tariff negotiation deadline, markets expect no major policy changes from the July FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings. This reinforces a supportive backdrop for yen-selling and dollar-buying.
Watch for the July 20 upper house election in Japan. If the ruling party loses its majority, expectations for tax cuts could trigger further yen weakness, especially toward the weekend.
💶 EUR/USD: Official Remarks and Trade Talks Weigh on Euro
The euro remains under pressure following ECB Vice President De Guindos’ remark that “a level above 1.20 is not desirable.”
Key events next week include the July 17 revised eurozone HICP and Germany’s ZEW sentiment index on the 18th. Progress—or lack thereof—in U.S.-EU tariff negotiations may also cause spikes in volatility.
💷 GBP/JPY: Data and Fiscal Risks Intertwine
The pound’s near-term direction will likely be shaped by the UK CPI (July 16) and employment report covering March–May (July 17). Markets are especially sensitive to core inflation and the services sector.
Concerns over the UK's fiscal sustainability have resurfaced. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) flagged risks of rising debt from healthcare and pension spending—potential headwinds for the pound.
Further uncertainty comes from delays in the U.S.-UK trade deal and possible sanctions on China, which could act as external risk factors.
🇨🇦 CAD/JPY: CPI and Trade Talks in the Spotlight
Canada will release its June CPI on July 15. If inflation remains below 2%, expectations for further rate cuts may rise.
Also critical is the ongoing U.S.-Canada trade agreement negotiation (target date: July 21). Depending on how talks unfold, CAD could swing sharply in either direction.
With two rate cuts already priced in for this year, a negative surprise might have only a limited impact on CAD.
🇦🇺 AUD/JPY: Employment Data is Key Post Rate Hold
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets this month by holding rates steady, bolstering the Aussie against major currencies.
June employment data, due July 17, will be closely watched—especially full-time job trends that could support the RBA’s decision.
The July 15 Westpac consumer sentiment index may also move markets as a leading indicator.
As for the NZD, expectations that the RBNZ has ended its rate cut cycle are fueling broad-based buying in Oceanian currencies.
📝 Summary: Strategy Amid Unclear Direction
With a packed schedule of economic data, trade developments, and political events, volatility could spike during the week of July 14.
- USD/JPY: Uptrend may persist on strong U.S. data and BoJ hold
- EUR/USD: Limited upside amid verbal intervention and trade risks
- GBP/JPY: High volatility on fiscal and policy uncertainty
- CAD/JPY: CPI and trade talks are the key drivers
- AUD/JPY: Trend depends on employment figures
📌 Strategy Keywords: “Clarity in Chaos” and “Agility in Action.”
In a week lacking clear direction, emotional discipline and precise execution become essential.
Epilogue
🦷 "Your account and your mouth are alike—ignore them, and the losses will grow."
This becomes clear the more time you spend in asset management.
Humans tend to treat their future selves surprisingly poorly.
Oral health is one such example.
"It's not painful now," or "I'm too busy"—
These small postponements silently pile up into real losses over time.
In fact:
- The American Heart Association (AHA) reported in 2019 that people with severe periodontitis face a 25% higher risk of heart disease.
- According to the American Diabetes Association (ADA), diabetics are 2–3 times more likely to suffer from gum disease, which in turn worsens blood sugar control.
- A 2020 UK study also found that oral bacteria entering the lungs can lead to aspiration pneumonia—particularly deadly for the elderly.
So, what should we do?
Exactly what we do in FX trading:
✅ Address “small troubles” early (＝cut losses)
✅ Perform regular check-ups (＝review your portfolio)
✅ Avoid neglect, and prioritize early maintenance (＝dental exams / risk management)
Pain signals usually come too late—by then, the damage is already spreading.
Prevention is the most cost-effective investment—both for your health and your wealth.
Whether you treat your “future self” like a stranger or as a partner to protect—
That difference shows in the little actions you take each day.
Thank you for your hard work this week.
Wishing you sound health in both your account and your oral cavity.
