📰 Cooling an Overheated Market Correction pressure hits gold, silver, oil, and equities; FX searches for direction
分析と予測

📰 Cooling an Overheated Market Correction pressure hits gold, silver, oil, and equities; FX searches for direction

2 2月 2026, 10:16
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📰 Cooling an Overheated Market
Correction pressure hits gold, silver, oil, and equities; FX searches for direction

🧭 Market Overview

At the start of the week, precious metals—especially gold and silver, which had surged sharply—fell abruptly.
At the same time, correction pressure spread to oil and equity markets.

Behind this move was last weekend’s report:

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair

This news quickly strengthened expectations of a stronger dollar and a more hawkish Fed stance, triggering an unwind of heavily built speculative positions.

Gold and silver, long treated as safe-haven assets, had recently behaved more like risk assets. The market is now undergoing a sharp correction to that overheating.

🇯🇵 Yen Market: “Takaichi Trade” vs. Risk Aversion

Weekend reports suggested the ruling coalition could secure more than 300 seats, reviving the so-called Takaichi trade (yen selling).

However,

  • Gold, equities, and oil corrected simultaneously

  • Risk-off sentiment spread across markets

As a result, yen selling did not persist.

USD/JPY moved back and forth between the upper 154s and mid-155s.

During spikes toward the 155 area, intervention concerns intensified, capping upside.

📊 USD/JPY 1-week volatility briefly reached 12%, clearly reflecting market instability.

🇺🇸 Two Ongoing U.S. Themes to Watch

① Fed Chair Nomination (Warsh)

  • Previously hawkish as a Fed Governor

  • Nominated by Trump, who favors rate cuts

  • Requires Congressional approval

  • Markets need to hear Warsh’s own stance

👉 The market has not yet formed a clear evaluation.

② Continuing Resolution (Budget) Issue

  • Awaiting House vote

  • Timing could even pose a risk of delaying U.S. jobs data

👉 Market psychology remains fragile.

📊 Key Upcoming Economic Indicators

Given the strong political tone, market reactions may be limited.

Europe

  • UK Nationwide House Prices (Jan)

  • UK Final Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

  • German Retail Sales (Dec)

  • German & Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Switzerland

  • Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI

U.S.

  • Final PMI (Jan)

  • ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan)

🎤 Speakers & Events

  • Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England

  • Bostic, Atlanta Fed President

  • Major U.S. earnings: Palantir, Disney

🔎 Summary — Key Points

  • Simultaneous correction in gold, silver, oil, and equities

  • Trigger: Fed nomination → stronger USD → position unwinding

  • Takaichi-driven yen selling did not continue

  • USD/JPY nervous in the 155 intervention-watch zone

  • U.S. political themes (Fed nomination, budget) in control

FX is in a nervous, direction-seeking phase without a clear trend.

📈 USD/JPY “Bifurcation Scenario” — The Critical Turning Point

USD/JPY is not in a trend market, but in an event-driven bifurcation market.
A single headline can move the pair 2–3 yen instantly.

Three keys:

  1. U.S.: Fed nomination, budget, dollar credibility

  2. Japan: General election (Takaichi trade) + intervention vigilance

  3. Interest rates: Direction of U.S.–Japan long-term yields

🔼 Upside Scenario (Yen Weakness / Dollar Strength)

Triggers

  • Market interprets Warsh as hawkish → USD strength

  • Budget passes smoothly → risk-on

  • Stronger ruling party outlook → Takaichi trade revival

  • BoJ emphasizes wait-and-see stance

  • U.S. yields rise again

Price image

155 holds → test 157 → approach 159

Major barrier

155.50–158.50 = Actual intervention zone

Upside is difficult; downside is easier — asymmetric.

Strategy

  • Do not chase above 155

  • Favor shorts after intervention-driven exhaustion

🔽 Downside Scenario (Yen Strength / Dollar Weakness)

Triggers

  • Renewed U.S. government shutdown risk

  • Trump comments weaken dollar credibility

  • Falling U.S. yields

  • Ongoing risk-off in equities/commodities

  • Intervention/watch rhetoric

Price image

Break 154 → 152 → test 150

Characteristic

Declines can occur even without news

The market is extremely sensitive to yen-buying catalysts.

Strategy

  • Sell rallies works well

  • 154.80–155.20 = favorable sell zone

🧭 Practical Bifurcation Map

Price Zone Market Psychology Likely Behavior Edge
158 area Maximum intervention alert Repeated upper wicks Strong sell bias
155.5–157 Takaichi trade vs intervention Nervous swings Rally-sell bias
153–155 Balance zone Waiting for catalysts Day-trading zone
150–152 Accelerating yen buying Easy to trend Sell continuation

🎯 Core Conclusion (Most Important)

Upside is stopped by politics; downside runs on market forces.

Meaning:

  • Rises require justification

  • Falls can happen without one

This asymmetry is the defining feature of the current market.

🛠 Tactical Logic (Short-Term)

  • Upper 155s: short-setup zone

  • Break below 154: trend-follow shorts

  • Break below 152: acceleration alert

  • Long positions lack edge unless pulled back toward 152


#Kevin, Warsh