[Market Overview – Risk Events Piling Up, Focus Shifts to U.S. Jobs Data and Powell's Speech]

[Market Overview – Risk Events Piling Up, Focus Shifts to U.S. Jobs Data and Powell's Speech]
— Post-Tariff Shock, Markets Face a Test of Resilience —

🔥 Trump Tariff Shock Persists: Risk-Off Mood Dominates

This week’s announcement of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” exceeded expectations in severity and shook the markets:

• A flat 10% base tariff, with additional country-specific surcharges triggered a global risk-off response.
• Stocks sold off globally, the USD weakened, while safe-havens like JPY, CHF, and EUR gained traction.
• Trump reiterated U.S. dominance and hinted at more tariffs unless trade concessions are made.

➡️ Focus now shifts to retaliation measures from the EU, China, the UK, and others—setting the stage for a potential trade war escalation.

📉 Asia Closed for Qingming Festival; Volatility May Linger

• Chinese and Hong Kong markets are closed today (Qingming holiday).
• Pre-weekend risk reduction and lack of liquidity may suppress activity, but volatility remains high.
• Any rebounds could trigger short-covering, but upside is likely to remain capped by geopolitical tension.

📌 Key Event 1: U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls

Although unrelated to the tariff shock, tonight’s NFP remains critical for assessing underlying labor strength.

Consensus Expectations:

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +140k (Prev: +151k)
• Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
• Avg Hourly Earnings: MoM +0.3%, YoY +4.0%

🟨 Note:
Yesterday’s surge in Challenger job cuts was driven by government layoffs (DOGE initiative), which could spill into today’s NFP and pose downside risk.

➡️ Weak data = USD selling, JPY/Gold buying likely. Watch closely for initial market reaction.

📌 Key Event 2: Fed Chair Powell's Speech

• Powell to speak at the SABEW Annual Conference about the economic outlook.
• This will be the first major Fed commentary post-tariff announcement.

🟨 Market Focus:

• Whether Powell addresses inflationary and growth risks from tariffs.
• A balanced tone could calm markets; any hawkish shift might add pressure.

➡️ Follow-up speeches from Fed’s Barr and Waller are also scheduled—potential cues for future policy direction.

🧭 Trade Strategy: Follow Momentum Post-NFP

📊 Summary

Stay nimble, manage risk tightly, and let the data speak before acting decisively.