🧩 Trade Talks: Progress Between U.S. and Canada, Yen Faces Appreciation Risk
分析と予測

🧩 Trade Talks: Progress Between U.S. and Canada, Yen Faces Appreciation Risk

30 6月 2025, 10:37
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
0
7

🧩 Trade Talks: Progress Between U.S. and Canada, Yen Faces Appreciation Risk
🌏 Weekly Market Report — Opening Snapshot
Dollar Weakness Resumes Amid U.S.-Japan Trade Tensions and Busy Week Ahead

💱 FX Market: Dollar Weakness Reignites, Yen and Euro Remain Firm
The week opened with renewed dollar selling. USD/JPY softened into the 143 range, while EUR/USD held firm around the 1.17 level. This shift is driven by a reversal of "Middle East-related dollar strength" and mounting expectations of a U.S. rate cut.

Markets are closely watching interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan and several upcoming policy events. Notably, USD/JPY 1-month implied volatility is rising again in the options market, signaling a potential return of directional momentum.

🧩 Trade Negotiations: U.S.-Canada Progresses, Japan Faces Yen Risk
Ahead of the July 9 deadline for suspending reciprocal tariffs, the Trump administration’s stance remains unclear.

U.S.-Japan trade talks have stalled over the auto sector, with speculation of a possible formal letter from the President.
Meanwhile, Canada has announced the withdrawal of its digital services tax, signaling progress in its talks with the U.S.

In contrast, Japan remains uncompromising, creating a risk of isolation. If the U.S. intensifies pressure, it could result in renewed yen appreciation risks.

📅 Key Events and Economic Data This Week

🌍 Major Economic Indicators

  • South Africa: May Trade Balance

  • U.S.: June Chicago PMI (Forecast: 42.9 / Previous: 40.5)

🎤 Key Speeches

  • ECB Officials: Vice President Luis de Guindos, President Christine Lagarde

  • Fed Officials: Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed), among others

With multiple central bank speeches lined up and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report (July 4) on Thursday, the dollar is likely to show clearer directional movement as the week progresses.

🧭 Market Outlook: Choppy Start With Event-Driven Volatility Expected
Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 5 (Friday), key market-moving events are front-loaded into the early part of the week. Expect nervous, potentially volatile moves before and after key data releases.

Additionally, as geopolitical tensions ease, the Swiss franc (CHF) is showing notable resilience. This has renewed its appeal as a safe-haven currency in current conditions.


#trade, Talks