🌐 Middle East Tensions Temporarily Ease
“No attacks this weekend” outlook brings market relief
Heading into the weekend, geopolitical risks in the Middle East appear to have subsided for now. The White House announced that President Trump will decide “within the next two weeks” whether to carry out an attack on Iran.
This has eased fears of an imminent military strike over the weekend, bringing a sense of relief to markets.
In the Asian session, equity markets traded mixed, but extreme risk-off sentiment has retreated. The U.S. Dollar Index is also struggling to extend gains at its recent highs, signaling a pause in the "risk-off dollar buying" trend.
📊 Key Economic Indicators Tonight
North American data may support continued USD strength
Several economic indicators are scheduled for release in overseas markets today:
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🇹🇷 Turkey: Consumer Confidence Index (June)
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🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Current Account & CPI (Q1 / May)
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🇨🇦 Canada: Retail Sales (April)
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🇨🇦 Canada: Industrial Product Prices (May)
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🇺🇸 U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)
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Forecast: -1.5 (Previous: -4.0)
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🇺🇸 U.S.: Leading Economic Index (May)
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Forecast: -0.1% (Previous: -1.0%)
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Most releases are expected to show improvement and could provide a supportive backdrop for market sentiment. Particular attention will be on the Philly Fed Index and the Leading Indicators.
🗣 Event & Headline Watch
Calm day on the schedule – headline-driven market likely
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The European Central Bank (ECB) will release its latest economic bulletin.
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No major scheduled speeches or central bank events are expected today.
As a result, markets are likely to remain sensitive to unscheduled headlines—especially concerning Middle East tensions and U.S. trade policy.
🎯 Trader's Strategy Note
"No weekend strike" outlook shifts bias temporarily toward risk-on
The White House’s statement that a decision will come within two weeks has dampened the risk of immediate U.S. military action.
This has prompted markets to unwind excessive risk-off positioning, shifting temporarily into a risk-on mode.
That said, the overall environment remains nervous and directionless, with sudden news headlines likely to drive volatility within a range-bound market.
Today calls for agile and flexible trading:
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Ride the short-term wave of risk appetite,
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Stay alert for any geopolitical headline shocks or disappointing U.S. data,
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And most importantly—keep positions light and reactions quick.
