分析と予測

📉 [Yen Strength & Ongoing Dollar Weakness] – USD/JPY Pressured by U.S. Asset Selling and Geopolitical Risk

21 5月 2025, 10:38
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📉 [Yen Strength & Ongoing Dollar Weakness] – USD/JPY Pressured by U.S. Asset Selling and Geopolitical Risk
📅 Wednesday, May 21, 2025

✅ Market Overview | USD/JPY pressured by U.S. outflows and geopolitical tension

  • USD/JPY continued to slide toward the mid-143 range, with little sign of recovery. Yen strength remains persistent.

  • Cross-yen pairs are also weak overall, led by a yen-dominant tone.

  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD all advanced, making the dollar’s weakness increasingly apparent.

  • U.S. 10-year yields rose to 4.52%, while U.S. equity futures softened in after-hours trading.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index broke below the key 100 level, reaching its lowest level since May 7.

  • UK CPI came in hot, pushing GBP/USD to its highest levels in nearly three years, contributing to overall dollar selling.

  • Reports of rising tension between Israel and Iran added to risk-off sentiment and yen buying flows.

📅 Economic Calendar (Key Overseas Events)

🔸 Economic Indicators

Region Indicator Importance
🇿🇦 South Africa CPI (Apr), Retail Sales (Mar) Medium
🇺🇸 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, Weekly Oil Inventory, 20-Year Bond Auction ($16B) Low to Medium
 

🔸 Speeches & Central Bank Events

  • 🇪🇺 ECB: Vice President de Guindos, Bank of Portugal’s Centeno, Chief Economist Lane

  • 🇬🇧 Former BOE MPC Member Tenreyro

  • 🇺🇸 Fed: Governor Bowman, Richmond Fed’s Barkin (Fed Listens Event)

  • 🇪🇸 Spain: Central Bank Governor Escrivá

→ Market impact from ECB speeches and financial stability reports (including negative rate debates) could outweigh Fed commentary.
→ Geopolitical risks in the Middle East likely to drive volatility more than central bank events today.

📈 Focus Assets & Strategy Summary | Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Asset Strategy Comment
USD/JPY Bearish bias continues Sell on rallies. Key support at 143.00, with option barriers on May 23/26/28. Watch closely.
BTC/USD Continue buying dips Key test at 110,000 resistance. Supported by geopolitical risk + dollar weakness.
EUR/USD Firm tone Bullish bias supported by dollar weakness and upcoming eurozone PMI. Watch ECB’s hawkish tone.
GBP/USD Breakout continuation Strong CPI lowers BOE rate cut expectations; technicals remain in bullish trend.
AUD/USD Sideways with support RBA dovish tone limits upside, but risk-on sentiment provides a floor.
 

📌 Summary

Triple pressures—USD weakness, JPY strength, and U.S. asset outflows—are shaping overall market sentiment.
The prevailing trend favors:

  • Dollar selling

  • Yen buying

  • Safe-haven demand for Gold and Bitcoin

Key focus: the 143.00 level in USD/JPY, where heavy option activity suggests potential volatility. Be cautious of headline-driven swings around this zone.


#U.S., Selling, Asset