💱 U.S. GDP (Revised) — Market Overview Report (Aug 28–29)
📉 Market Snapshot
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Focus today: U.S. GDP (revised) and weekly jobless claims.
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FX market remains influenced by month-end flows, with overall direction still unclear.
📊 Expected Ranges by Currency Pair
| Pair | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.80 – 147.80 | Driven by U.S. data swings; consolidation around 147.00. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1580 – 1.1700 | European political risk weighs, but downside support remains firm. |
| GBP/USD | 1.3400 – 1.3550 | UK politics + post-CPI adjustments; stabilizing phase. |
| EUR/JPY | 171.00 – 172.50 | Largely range trading; direction tied to EUR/USD. |
| GBP/JPY | 198.50 – 200.00 | 200 test possible, but risk of failure; strong downside support. |
| AUD/JPY | 95.00 – 96.20 | RBA cut speculation persists; yen selling provides support. |
| CAD/JPY | 106.50 – 107.50 | Uncertainty ahead of GDP; watch for break below 106.00. |
| ZAR/JPY | 8.25 – 8.40 | Supported by inflows, but vulnerable to risk-off sentiment. |
🔹 Short-Term Strategy Scenarios
💵 USD/JPY
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Scenario 1 (USD bullish): Strong GDP & claims → test 147.80.
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Scenario 2 (USD bearish): Weak jobs data → risk of break below 146.00.
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Strategy: Sell rallies in mid-147s; break below 146.00 = bearish continuation.
💶 EUR/USD
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Scenario 1: Weak U.S. data → recovery into 1.17s.
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Scenario 2: Strong U.S. data → slip back into low 1.16s.
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Strategy: Favor selling rallies 1.1650–70; break below 1.1600 = add to shorts.
💷 GBP/JPY
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Scenario 1: Risk-on mood → test 200, but prone to rejection.
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Scenario 2: Downside anchored by 197.50 support.
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Strategy: Buy dips near 198.00–198.20; take profit near 200.00.
🇨🇦 CAD/JPY
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Scenario 1: Likely sideways tonight, waiting for GDP next week.
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Scenario 2: Oil weakness + U.S.–Canada trade tensions → risk of break below 106.00.
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Strategy: Sell rallies near 107.00; break below 106.00 = follow through lower.
🇦🇺 AUD/JPY
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Scenario 1: Supported around 95 on China data stability.
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Scenario 2: RBA easing expectations cap rebounds.
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Strategy: Sell near 96; dip-buy around low 95s.
✅ Summary
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Key trigger today: U.S. GDP (revised) & jobless claims.
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Expect short-term volatility in USD/JPY & EUR/USD.
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Bigger picture: Next week’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) likely to define the next sustained trend.
