💱 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence — Market Scenario & Strategy
📉 Market Overview
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Powell’s Jackson Hole speech reaffirmed a “data-dependent” stance.
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He flagged weakness in the labor market but left inflation concerns unresolved.
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September FOMC: 25bp rate cut odds ~90%, no major shift in market view.
💵 Tokyo Session Moves
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USD/JPY: Traded in a 146.99–147.89 range.
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Report of Fed Governor Cook’s resignation → brief dollar selling.
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BoJ underlying inflation +2.0% (lowest this year) → yen selling limited.
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Euro: Political uncertainty in France pressured EUR; watch German–French 10Y yield spread.
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Month-end factors: Rebalancing flows into London fix could lift volatility.
📊 Key Data Releases (Aug 26)
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U.S. Durable Goods Orders (July, advance): -3.9% expected (vs prior -9.4%) → watch for short-term USD reaction.
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U.S. House Price Index (June): -0.2% expected; Case-Shiller 20-city YoY +2.25% expected.
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U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug): 96.5 expected → weaker = USD selling; stronger = USD buying.
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U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug): -20.0 expected → may highlight weakness in sentiment.
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U.S. 2Y Treasury Auction ($69B): Bond demand and yields in focus.
🗣 Speeches & Events
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Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France Governor): Speech at European Economic Area meeting.
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Catherine Mann (BoE) & Tiff Macklem (BoC Governor): Participation at Banco de México 100th Anniversary event.
✅ Trading Strategy Notes
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Core bias remains USD selling, but short-term volatility expected on data & comments.
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Key watchpoints:
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Weaker U.S. consumer confidence → USD selling accelerates.
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Month-end flows → risk of temporary USD buying/reversal.
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Personal stance:
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Focus on selling rallies to position for USD weakness.
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Keep positions light around events.
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📊 Range Table (Aug 26, 2025)
| Pair | Expected Range | Support | Resistance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.80 – 148.50 | 146.80 / 146.50 | 147.90 / 148.50 | Sensitive to U.S. data; <146.80 risks deeper drop. Month-end flows could spark temporary USD buying. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 – 1.1700 | 1.1600 / 1.1570 | 1.1670 / 1.1700 | EUR firm, but moves hinge on U.S. data. Weak sentiment = EUR vulnerable. |
| GBP/USD | 1.3420 – 1.3530 | 1.3420 / 1.3400 | 1.3500 / 1.3530 | Weighed by weak UK CPI but downside limited; tracks USD moves. |
| EUR/JPY | 171.50 – 172.80 | 171.50 / 171.20 | 172.50 / 172.80 | Relatively firm; risk-on = higher, USD-led risk-off = lower. |
| GBP/JPY | 197.50 – 200.00 | 197.50 / 197.00 | 199.50 / 200.00 | 200.00 is key psychological level; weak U.S. data could trigger risk-off drop. |
✅ Key Takeaways
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USD/JPY: Most sensitive to U.S. data & Fed remarks; 147s = sell zone.
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EUR/USD: Needs fresh catalyst to break above 1.17.
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GBP/JPY: Choppy around 200.00; break could accelerate moves.
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Cross-yen: Prone to risk-on/off swings; U.S. data matters more than EU releases.
