Press review - page 427

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 95 pips price movement

2016-08-18 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.9%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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• "Compared with June 2016, the quantity bought increased by 1.4%; all sectors showed growth with the main contribution again coming from non-food stores."
• "Average store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 2.0% in July 2016 compared with July 2015. Compared with June 2016, there was a fall of 0.8%."

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GBP/USD M5: 95 pips price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2016-08-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

• past data is -2.9
• forecast data is 1.4
• actual data is 2.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event

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GBP/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil Price Action Analysis - Fibo resistance level to be breakign for the bullish trend to be continuing (adapted from the article)

Daily price is on bullish market condition located above 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA: the price is breaking Fibo resistance level at 51.16 for the bullish trend to be continuing with 52.82 as a nearest daily target.

"After failing at the topchannel in June, the price quickly dropped down to a pre-identified zone provided by the median line and the Fibonacci Retracement levels in focus between $41.85-$35.22/bbl. Key support that would deflate the confidence of the 22%+ August trend would be a break below the higher-low of $41.27/bbl from August 11."

If the price breaks Fibo support level at 41.49 to below so the bearish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks Fibo support level at 47.47 to below so we may see the local downtrend as the secondary correction.
If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 51.16 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 52.82 as a nearest daily target..
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
51.16	47.47
52.82	41.49

The Medium-Term Strategy: watch close daily price to break 51.16 resistance level for 52.82 target to re-enter.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is on bullish ranging near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart: the price is testing 1.3126 support level to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition to be started

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for GBP/USD to keep the bearish trend with 1.3270 level to be unlikely to be broke to above:

"While we anticipated a corrective rebound to 1.3170 (see update on Wednesday), the pace of the up-move was unexpected. The high has been 1.3186 so far and with no signs of weakness just yet, the current GBP strength appears to have room to extend further to 1.3270 even though the odds for such a move are clearly lower (an unlikely clear break above 1.3270 would indicate that GBP has entered a bullish phase). All said, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the next few days unless there is a move back below 1.3020."

• If daily price breaks 1.3319 resistance level on close bar to above so the local uptrebd as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.2794 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.1365 resistance level for the ranging to be started within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1365 resistance level located above 100 SMA/100 SMA in the bullish trend to be continuing, and
• 1.1283 support level located in the beginning fo the secondary correction to be started.

The bearish reversal level is 1.1130 support, and if the price breaks this level to below on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the bullish trend up to 1.1430/35 level as the target:

"The immediate bullish target that was indicated on Wednesday was quickly met as EUR surged to an overnight high of 1.1365. While the outlook is still clearly bullish and the next level to focus on is at 1.1430/35 (high on the day of Brexit), the pace of the current rally appears to be unsustainable and those who are long should look to take some profit on any approach to 1.1430/35."

• If daily price breaks 1.1365 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.1267 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "While the market is only pricing in a 50-50 chance that the Fed will hike rates this year; the contrast to the desperate and persistent stimulus programs form the ECB, BoJ and BoE raise the US currency’s profile. This past week in fact, we saw a remarkable series of volatile days for the US Dollar founded on changing tides in speculation for Fed timing based on the rhetoric of FOMC members and a few key pieces of data. It is worth noting, however, that the currency’s reaction didn’t hang on every word spoken by the central bankers. Many times volatility would follow the course of skepticism after a member (Dudley, Williams, Bullard) attempted to crack the market’s skepticism of hikes in 2016." 

EUR/USD - "The prospects for European interest rates are even worse than that of the US, however; at some point the Euro will need to trade on its own merits. Recent ECB rhetoric suggests the bank is in a "wait and see" mode as it does not want to ease monetary policy further until it sees further signs of persistently low inflation and growth. Its main refinancing rate already stands at 0.00% while its deposit facility rate is strongly negative at -0.40%. Further policy easing seems likely as Overnight Index Swaps predict 20 percent odds of a further rate cut in September. ECB officials have nonetheless expressed discomfort from cutting rates further into negative territory; at a certain point interest rate expectations may have little marginal effect on the EUR."

USD/JPY - "So, details continue to line-up for this upcoming September Bank of Japan meeting to be very, very interesting. The big question is when markets might actually begin to try to anticipate this weakening in the Yen, as the currency is continuing to trade near longer-term resistance levels against many major currencies, including the psychological ¥100.00-spot against the U.S. Dollar."

AUD/USD - "A mostly quiet economic data docket in the week ahead will keep the spotlight on this narrative as all eyes turn to a speech from Fed Chair Yellen at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. The gathering has emerged as a venue for key announcements of Fed policy intentions in recent years. If Williams’ retreat last week is representative of Fed leadership’s efforts to corral disparate FOMC members and present a unified hawkish posture, this will be the opportunity for Yellen to drive that message home. The Australian Dollar is likely to find itself on the defensive if this proves to be the case, suffering at the hands of an adverse shift in yield spreads as well as the likely onset of risk aversion."

USD/CAD - "As encouraging as the August Bull Market in Oil has been, the non-Oil sector has been very weak and the current price of Oil at less than $50/bbl is still providing negative margins for many E&P firms in Canada. Unfortunately, if we begin to hear from the Bank of Canada about potential easing, we could quickly see the gains of the Canadian Dollar dissipate in a hurry."

USD/CNH - "In the coming week, this wrestling may continue as a primary theme amid a light Chinese calendar. Major event risk will likely come from trading counterparts, including measures for US labor and housing markets for the month of July. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech may bring some volatility to FX markets but is less likely to change the fact that FOMC members are holding divergent views towards imminent rate hikes. The odds of a hike in September is at 24% and 28.9% in November, so relatively low. As our Currency Analyst James Stanley discussed, the marginal utility of rate hike fears is diminishing. Without a high probability of a Fed rate hike, the Dollar/Yuan is less likely to break the pivotal 6.7000-psychological level." 

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Interestingly enough, this week’s range was even smaller at just 1.76% - (smallest weekly range since 12/25/2015). The last time range was this contracted was just one week before the 2016 open which marked strongest quarterly rally since 3Q of 1986. That’s all to say that gold prices are primed for volatility in the coming weeks. We’ll maintain a neutral bias for now as we continue to hold the monthly opening range. Levels remain unchanged."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, August 21 - August 28 (based on the article)

The US dollar was on the back foot, suffering losses of various degrees across the board. The upcoming week features US durable goods orders, updated GDP reads from the UK and the US as well as the Jackson Hole Symposium. Here is a guide to the key events of the upcoming week.

1. US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. The figure reached 5.57 million (annualized) in June. A similar figure of 5.55 million is projected.
2. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
3. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 8:00.
4. Durable goods orders: Thursday, 12:30. Headline orders are predicted to rise by 3.5% after a slump of 3.9%. Core figures are also expected to bounce: a rise of 0.4% after a slide of the same scale beforehand.
5. UK GDP: Friday, 8:30. The strong growth in the Spring is expected to be confirmed in the second read. The bigger speculation is about the third quarter, post-Brexit.
6. US GDP: Friday, 12:30. The first release of Q2 2016 GDP was very disappointing. Note that the market impact is not as strong as the first release.
7. Janet Yellen talks: Friday, in the European afternoon.
   

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 Weekly: daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for direction (adapted from the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.

• The price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.
• Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is above the price for the ranging condition to be continuing.
• Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the flat condition for the near future.
  
• "The rally remains in place as rotating market leadership is a positive."
• "Look to the sectors that will show earnings driven improvement: Energy and Technology."
• "Investors need to ignore the “low volume” arguments during the recent rally. The skeptics spinning that yarn have been wrong for years."
• "The trends in crude oil and the USD remain favorable for the market "melt up" to continue."

If D1 price breaks 2165.25 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.
If D1 price breaks 2190.75 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
2190.75	2165.25
N/A	2129.55

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 100.96 resistance level located below 100 SMA/100 SMA in the beginning of the secondary rally to be started, and
• 99.52 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the bearish area of the chart.

The bullish reversal level is 102.19 resistance, and if the price breaks this level to above on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for USD/JPY to be continuing for the bearish trend with the ranging market condition:

"While the stop-loss for the current bearish USD view is still intact at 101.20, the strong rebound last Friday and the strongly opening this morning clearly indicates a lower odds for further USD weakness. Unless USD can move and stay below 100.00 within these couple of days, a break above 101.20 would not be surprising."

• If daily price breaks 102.56 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 99.52 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for NZD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located near above 100 SMA and above 200 SMA for the bullish market condition with the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 0.7323 resistance level located above 100 SMA/100 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 0.7208 support level located near 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging area.

The bearish reversal level is 0.7157 support, and if the price breaks this level to below on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for NZD/USD to be continuing with 0.7170/0.7350 range:

"NZD traded quietly last Friday and at this stage, there is no reason to expect the current neutral phase to end. In other words, further range trading between 0.7170 and 0.7350 is still expected."

• If daily price breaks 0.7337 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 0.7143 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started. 
• If daily price breaks 0.6844 support level on close bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started for daily price.
  
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.