GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 95 pips price movement
2016-08-18 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
GBP/USD M5: 95 pips price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
2016-08-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.
EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event
GBP/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event
Crude Oil Price Action Analysis - Fibo resistance level to be breakign for the bullish trend to be continuing (adapted from the article)
Daily price is on bullish market condition located above 200 period SMA
and 100 period SMA: the price is breaking Fibo resistance level at 51.16 for the bullish trend to be continuing with 52.82 as a nearest daily target.
If the price breaks Fibo support level at 41.49
to below so the bearish reversal will be started. If the price breaks Fibo support level at 47.47
to below so we may see the local downtrend as the secondary correction. If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 51.16 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 52.82 as a nearest daily target.. If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is on bullish ranging near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart: the price is testing 1.3126 support level to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition to be started
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for GBP/USD to keep the bearish trend with 1.3270 level to be unlikely to be broke to above:
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.1365 resistance level for the ranging to be started within
the following support/resistance
bearish reversal level is 1.1130 support, and if the price breaks this
level to below on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price
movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the bullish trend up to 1.1430/35 level as the target:
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "While the market is only pricing in a 50-50 chance that the Fed will hike rates this year;
the contrast to the desperate and persistent stimulus programs form the
ECB, BoJ and BoE raise the US currency’s profile. This past week in
fact, we saw a remarkable series of volatile days for the US Dollar founded on changing tides in speculation for Fed timing based on the rhetoric of FOMC
members and a few key pieces of data. It is worth noting, however, that
the currency’s reaction didn’t hang on every word spoken by the central
bankers. Many times volatility would follow the course of skepticism
after a member (Dudley, Williams, Bullard) attempted to crack the
market’s skepticism of hikes in 2016."
EUR/USD - "The prospects for European interest rates are
even worse than that of the US, however; at some point the Euro will
need to trade on its own merits. Recent ECB rhetoric suggests the bank
is in a "wait and see" mode as it does not want to ease monetary policy
further until it sees further signs of persistently low inflation and
growth. Its main refinancing rate already stands at 0.00% while its
deposit facility rate is strongly negative at -0.40%. Further policy
easing seems likely as Overnight Index Swaps predict 20 percent odds of a
further rate cut in September. ECB officials have nonetheless expressed
discomfort from cutting rates further into negative territory; at a
certain point interest rate expectations may have little marginal effect
on the EUR."
USD/JPY - "So, details continue to line-up for this
upcoming September Bank of Japan meeting to be very, very interesting.
The big question is when markets might actually begin to try to
anticipate this weakening in the Yen, as the currency is continuing to
trade near longer-term resistance levels against many major currencies,
including the psychological ¥100.00-spot against the U.S. Dollar."
AUD/USD - "A mostly quiet economic data docket in the
week ahead will keep the spotlight on this narrative as all eyes turn to
a speech from Fed Chair Yellen at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.
The gathering has emerged as a venue for key announcements of Fed policy
intentions in recent years. If Williams’ retreat last week is
representative of Fed leadership’s efforts to corral disparate FOMC
members and present a unified hawkish posture, this will be the
opportunity for Yellen to drive that message home. The Australian Dollar
is likely to find itself on the defensive if this proves to be the
case, suffering at the hands of an adverse shift in yield spreads as
well as the likely onset of risk aversion."
USD/CAD - "As encouraging as the August Bull Market in
Oil has been, the non-Oil sector has been very weak and the current
price of Oil at less than $50/bbl is still providing negative margins
for many E&P firms in Canada. Unfortunately, if we begin to hear
from the Bank of Canada about potential easing, we could quickly see the
gains of the Canadian Dollar dissipate in a hurry."
USD/CNH - "In the coming week, this wrestling may continue as a primary theme
amid a light Chinese calendar. Major event risk will likely come from
trading counterparts, including measures for US labor and housing
markets for the month of July. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech may bring some
volatility to FX markets but is less likely to change the fact that FOMC
members are holding divergent views towards imminent rate hikes. The
odds of a hike in September is at 24% and 28.9% in November, so
relatively low. As our Currency Analyst James Stanley discussed, the marginal utility of rate hike fears is diminishing. Without a high probability of a Fed rate hike, the Dollar/Yuan is less likely to break the pivotal 6.7000-psychological level."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Interestingly enough, this week’s range was
even smaller at just 1.76% - (smallest weekly range since 12/25/2015).
The last time range was this contracted was just one week before the
2016 open which marked strongest quarterly rally since 3Q of 1986.
That’s all to say that gold prices are primed for volatility in the
coming weeks. We’ll maintain a neutral bias for now as we continue to
hold the monthly opening range. Levels remain unchanged."
Weekly Outlook: 2016, August 21 - August 28 (based on the article)
The US dollar was on the back foot, suffering losses of various degrees across the board. The upcoming week features US durable goods orders, updated GDP reads from the UK and the US as well as the Jackson Hole Symposium. Here is a guide to the key events of the upcoming week.
S&P 500 Weekly: daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for direction (adapted from the article)
Daily price is on bullish ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.
If D1 price breaks 2165.25
support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.If D1 price breaks 2190.75
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish
trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bullish
Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bearish market condition: the
price is on ranging within
the following support/resistance
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for USD/JPY to be continuing for the bearish trend with the ranging market condition:
"While the stop-loss for the current bearish USD view is still intact at
101.20, the strong rebound last Friday and the strongly opening this
morning clearly indicates a lower odds for further USD weakness. Unless
USD can move and stay below 100.00 within these couple of days, a break
above 101.20 would not be surprising."
Technical Targets for NZD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is located near above 100 SMA and above 200 SMA for the bullish market condition with the ranging within
the following support/resistance
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for NZD/USD to be continuing with 0.7170/0.7350 range:
"NZD traded quietly last Friday and at this stage, there is no reason to
expect the current neutral phase to end. In other words, further range
trading between 0.7170 and 0.7350 is still expected."