Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for USD/JPY - page 2
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.21 07:47
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance and 28 pips range price movement
2016-11-20 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
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From forexlive article: Japan Trade balance for October: Y496.2bn (expected Y610bn)
- expected Y 610bn, prior was Y 497.6bn
Trade balance (adjusted): Y 474.3bn==========
USD/JPY M5: 28 pips price movement by Japan Trade Balance news event
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.24 08:55
Japan's Asakawa says Trump presidency won't change Japan forex policy (based on the article)
"Japan's top currency diplomat Masatsugu Asakawa said there will be no change to Japan's currency policy after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump forms his administration, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday."
"Japan guides exchange-rate policy based on an agreement among the Group of Seven advanced economies that highly volatile currency fluctuations are undesirable for the economy, a stance that won't change after Trump becomes president, Nikkei quoted Asakawa as saying. It did say when the interview was conducted."
"The dollar has strengthened against the yen since Trump was elected president and U.S. Treasury yields spiked on expectations that the new administration would boost debt-funded infrastructure spending. Trump has repeatedly criticized Japan and China for currency policies that give their exports an unfair trade advantage, reinforcing market expectations that Japan won't get consent from the United States to intervene in the currency market to stem any future, unwelcome yen rises."
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 16:25
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY: ISM Purchasing Managers' Index
2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
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From official report:
"The November PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The Production Index registered 56 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the October reading of 52.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the October reading of 47.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.5 percent in November, the same reading as in October, indicating higher raw materials prices for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from the panel cite increasing demand, some tightness in the labor market and plans to reduce inventory by the end of the year."
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EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
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USD/CAD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
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USD/JPY M5: 25 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.18 12:13
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)USD/JPY - "The forecast for next week will be set to neutral. While the trend of weakness is attractive, we’re at significant oversold levels ahead of a major Central Bank meeting, and ahead of the holidays, which can be an unforgiving environment if chasing oversold/bought trends."