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Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 13 - November 20 (based on the article)
GDP data from Japan and Germany, Mario Draghi’s speech, Inflation figure from the UK and the US, Employment data from the UK, Australia and the US, US Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. These are the major events on forex calendar.
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2016, November 13 - November 20 (based on the article)
EUR/USD had a volatile week around the US elections and eventually closed lower. Speeches by Draghi, inflation, and GDP data stand. Will the euro continue lower?. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.
Dollar Index - "While the effectiveness of domestic policies may or may not be, we may see a more consistent bolster for the Dollar in the universal detriment to the United States’ largest trade partners through proposed trade policies. A resounding part of the Trump platform against the global rise of protectionism was the vow to renegotiation, scrape or withdrawal from global trade deals that were not perceived as beneficial to the US. That includes NAFTA and TPP as well as labeling China a ‘currency manipulator’ that it could impose tariffs on. This global withdrawal from globalization is detrimental for all long term, but in the short-term it hurts export-dependent nations and currencies more while the consumer countries (like the US) may enjoy a short-term boost. Should it immediately devolve into a trade war, no currency will win, but volatility will grow by leaps and bounds."
GBP/USD - "Data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may shake up GBP/USD as retail spending is projected to increase another 0.6% in October, while consumer prices are anticipated to pick up for the third consecutive month, but the slew of Fed speeches on tap for the week ahead may do little to boost the appeal of the greenback especially as the permanent-voting members appear to be in no rush to further normalize monetary policy. Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to implement a December rate-hike, Chair Janet Yellen may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for 2017 as the central bank head is scheduled to appear in front of the Joint Economic Committee on November 17, and more of the same rhetoric may drag on interest-rate expectations as the committee continues to warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’ With that said, market participants may pay increased attention to the Fed’s fresh projections coming out at the next quarterly policy meeting on December 14, and the dollar stands at risk of facing headwinds ahead of 2017 should central bank officials continue to cut the long-run interest rate forecast."
USD/CAD - "Some institutions have called the Donald Trump impending administration a new era because of his Fiscal Stimulus agenda aligned with a Republican Congress that will allow him to pass far more than he could have in a deadlocked in Congress. The importance of the new-era is what that could do for inflation in the United States, which has been seenat the long end of the UST Yield Curve. On Wednesday, the UST 10Yr yield had its largest intraday range, which was indicative of inflation concerns. When combining the Trump election with Brexit, there appears to be a democratic trend towards nationalism that could continue to feed the USD Bulls and US Treasury Bears. Continue to keep an eye on the price of Crude Oil because of the inability for Crude Oil to push higher as more trade pressures are placed on OPEC to come to an agreement to cut production."
AUD/USD - "The pricing in of this world view is likely to resume next week, sending the Aussie lower. A busy Fed-speak docket coupled with US PPI and CPI numbers may reinforce momentum if a repeat of recently hawkish rhetoric and further evidence of firming price pressures underscores the on-coming Fed vs. RBA divergence. Domestic jobs data may momentarily slow momentum but probably won’t be potent-enough to offset it."
NZD/USD - "Next week the release of Dairy prices on Tuesday could be one of the more compelling drivers on the Kiwi. Milk prices are often a leading driver of NZD price action, and given the brute unpredictability that this data point will often bring, a higher-than-expected read could bring strength back into the Kiwi-Dollar. Outside of Dairy prices, Retail sales are released on Monday afternoon, and consumer confidence and producer price numbers are released on Wednesday afternoon."
USD/CNH - "Event risks from home are expected to add volatility to Yuan rates as well. China’ foreign reverses, exports and CPI reads for October are the top indicators to keep an eye on. In September, China’s foreign reserves dropped -$18 billion to $3.166 trillion, the lowest level since May 2011. If the holdings continue to fall, China’s Central Bank is less likely to support the Yuan when it devalues against the Dollar as this will further burn foreign reserves. Also, China’s overseas shipments in Dollar terms unexpectedly shrank -10% in September. A weaker Yuan may have helped to ease the pressure on exporters: The Yuan lost -1.57% onshore and -1.58% offshore in October. In terms of the headline inflation, multiple Chinese financial institutions forecast that the CPI will rise back to above 2% in October. A higher CPI may reduce the odds of the PBOC introducing further easing measures, and thus, may support Yuan rates."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week traders will be lending a keen ear to a fresh batch of commentary from Fed Speakers as expectations for a December rate hike continue to take root. Fed Fund Futures have continued to climb post-election with markets now pricing an 84% chance the central bank will move on rates next month. With the stage now set for Janet Yellen & Co, traders will be eyeing key U.S. data prints next week with Advanced Retail Sales & the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap. All thing’s held constant (data in-line), look for gold to remain under pressure as rising asset prices & expectations for higher rates continue to curb demand for bullion holdings."
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks and 34 pips range price movement
2016-11-14 01:00 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks]
[JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks] = Speech about Japan's economy and monetary policy at the business leaders meeting, in Nagoya.
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From gettyimages article: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speech and News Conference
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USD/JPY M5: 34 pips range price movement by BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks news event