On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 7

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We need to move on to practice. The 'From Theory to Practice' thread as a model.
 

How boring it turns out I've been having a New Year's Eve)))

It's always like that with pointless posts, they rack up a bunch of responses at breakneck speed. )

 
Mikhael1983:

Question: how is this possible? If we assume that moves up or down by some value for EN are equally probable, we have asymmetry in EP. If we assume that movements in the EP pair by some value are equally probable, we have asymmetry in EN.

First of all, how nice that there are people like you!)
Secondly, yes indeed the probability distribution is mostly as follows:
On sell the thick tails are longer, on buy the thin tails are longer.
The probabilities will not be exactly 50/50 but with an error of +-3%, not more.
This error allows to overcome the spread of 10 points at fivefolds when trading from one-month timeframe.
This is a very, very long time.
That's basically all you can squeeze out of it...unfortunately...
 

Hello all, I'm reading you here and I realize that I don't understand half of the words (expressions).

I have a simple task for you. You're saying such clever things here, you can handle it easily.)

So a truck comes up to the tunnel and can't get through. And the cargo is valuable,

so we have to deliver it after all. So the driver calls his superiors,

They rushed over, took some specialists, stood there wondering what to do.

Multiple versions: some of them say the tunnel needs to be widened, others say the driver needs a diversion (and that's too far),

there were suggestions to quickly fill in the new road and so on.

So, I have a question, what should be done in this situation?


 
Aleksandr Yakovlev:

Hi all, I'm reading you here and I realize that I don't understand half of the words (expressions).

I have a simple task for you. You're saying such clever things here, you can handle it easily.)

So a truck comes up to the tunnel and can't get through. And the cargo is valuable,

so we have to deliver it after all. So the driver calls his superiors,

They rushed over, took some specialists, stood there wondering what to do.

Different versions: some of them say the tunnel needs to be widened, others say the driver needs a diversion (and that's too far),

there were suggestions to quickly fill in the new road and so on.

So, I have a question, what should be done in this situation?


(wheels down)
 
Martin CHEguevara:
Let the wheels down.

That's right))). You know this one?))

Why did I just bring it up? It's just that the market is like a truck in front of a tunnel.

Trading turns out to be a lot easier than it looks. And all that nerdy talk is....

Fuck if I know. You got to take it easy when you're trading. Then everything will work out)))

 
Aleksandr Yakovlev:

That's right))). You know this one?))

Why did I just bring it up? It's just that the market is like a truck in front of a tunnel.

Trading turns out to be a lot easier than it looks. And all that nerd talk is....

Fuck if I know. You got to take it easy when you're trading. Then everything will work out)))

I knew that answer too. But the answer is wrong.

For the right answer, you need to know the tunnel height and wheel diameter and a lot of "minor" data.

Here for example you also need to know the payload and the length of the tunnel. Why is this necessary, because driving with flat tyres under heavy load, the wheels will simply fail.

And on the subject of forex, it's also ambiguous. There are so many subtle factors affecting this simplicity, each of which can turn your entire trade upside down.

 
Petros Shatakhtsyan:

I knew that answer too. But the answer is wrong.

For the correct answer, you need to know the tunnel height and wheel diameter and a lot of 'minor' data.

For example, you also need to know the payload and the length of the tunnel. Why is this necessary, because driving with flat tyres under heavy load, the wheels will simply fail.

And on the subject of forex, it's also ambiguous. There are so many subtle factors affecting this simplicity, each of which can turn your entire trade upside down.

The task is abstract, so the solution is the right one :)

 

Let me make one more point. For example, a very good and respected person has committed a very heinous crime.

If you look into this particular act, it defies logic, all his family and friends will be puzzled and say,

that he simply couldn't have done it. And take for example 1 million people and out of them, for example, 50 will commit this (similar)

heinous crime, 50 people. This year it's 50 people, last year it was 48 people,

the year after that there were 53 similar crimes. All this leads to statistics.

The market has statistics too and they do not change. A man cannot be changed. There are fears, there is greed and certain actions when trading.

And this can be seen on the chart. I hope you understood me. That there are certain patterns of price movements.

 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

The problem is abstract, so the solution is correct :)

Back in Soviet times, many people defended doctoral theses with such "abstract problems".

No abstract solution is valid in forex.

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