On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 2

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Дмитрий:
What other probabilities are there for such a paltry number of observations?
How many observations are you talking about? I'm not talking about statistics, I'm talking about arithmetic. The conclusions are arithmetical, rigorous, not statistical.
 
Vladimir Baskakov:
There is less logic than speculation so far. But there is nothing wrong with aplomb
A typical representative of the constantly trading at a loss masses, such comments and expected 99+% ) However, there must be a vanishingly small percentage of other people.
 
Mikhael1983:
Typical of the masses who trade at a loss all the time, such comments are expected 99+% of the time)

Do you trade on the upside or are you just a theorist?

 
Vitalii Ananev:

Do you trade on the upside or are you just a theorist?

That is irrelevant. Relevant is the simple fact that people tend to think the probabilities of "up" and "down" are equal, despite the obvious fact that the ultimate value of profit or loss has to take into account the change in the value of the money in which they calculate those same "up" or "down".
 
Mikhael1983:
This is irrelevant. Relevant is the simple fact that people tend to think the upside and downside probabilities are equal, despite the obvious fact that the ultimate value of profit or loss has to take into account the change in the value of the money in which they calculate those same upside or downside.

All right, so you're a theorist. :)

 
Mikhael1983:

What is "Vary EN by 0.3"? Do you want to add 0.3000 to the EURGBP quotes? If you express it in fractions, why do you add and delete both in the numerator and denominator 0.3?

 
You have an elementary arithmetical error - that's why you get different values
 
Дмитрий:

What is "Vary EN by 0.3"? Do you want to add 0.3000 to the EURGBP quotes? If you express it in fractions, why do you add and delete both in the numerator and denominator 0.3?

Thank you for a meaningful question. "Provariate" means the following: let's imagine that over some time interval (located to the right of the price graph pieces shown on the time axis) the value of EN will change, in some way. By some value. Let us denote it by deltaEN. The value of PN will change by the same value, since, I draw your attention once again, the graphs of the euro and pound in relation to the quoted currency N are identical to a constant (one). Accordingly, I find the euro pound EURGBP as the ratio of euro to N and pound to N (EN in the numerator, PN in the denominator). Actually the value 0.3 is just an arbitrary value, one could take any other one. Even 0.1 or 0.5. Just a change that will happen sooner or later (how long it will take - does not matter, the only thing is that the magnitude of the change should be related to the EN itself, if it is about 5.5, it is strange to expect a change of 10 in the foreseeable future, it is still a relatively small change from the last known value).
 
Mikhael1983:
Thank you for your intelligent question. "Provariate" means the following: imagine that over some time interval (located to the right of the price chart pieces shown on the time axis) the value of EN will change, in some way. By some value. Let us denote it by deltaEN. The value of PN will change by the same value, since, I draw your attention once again, the graphs of the euro and pound in relation to the quoted currency N are identical to a constant (one). Accordingly, I find the euro pound EURGBP as the ratio of euro to N and pound to N (EN in the numerator, PN in the denominator). Actually the value 0.3 is just an arbitrary value, one could take any other one. Even 0.1 or 0.5. Just some change that will happen sooner or later.

So correct the formula - if EURGBP is rising or falling, you should add 0.3 to its quotations, not in the numerator and denominator.

you have an arithmetical error and that is why you get different numbers

 
(EUR/GBP + 0.3) does not equal (EUR +0.3)/(GBP+0.3)
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