On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 5
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And how does this contradict the fact that after some time it will necessarily move up or down by a predetermined reasonable delta?
It will only move if someone sells or buys on the market. And not by some hypothetical delta, but to the price of the nearest bid or ask. Examine the Depth of Market. If there is a limit order to sell 10 contracts at a price of 100 RUB, and a limit order to sell 20 contracts at 110 RUB in the Depth of Market. You will buy on the market 30 contracts. You will buy 10 contracts at a price of 100 RUB, and 20 contracts at a price of 110 RUB, and the current price will be 110 RUB. The price has changed, because there was a demand and by this purchase you have bought out all the nearest rates in the market. Where are the probabilities here?
... Where are the probabilities here?
The probabilities are here: forget that this is a price chart for clarity's sake. Think of it as a graph of the temperature in the village of Gadiukino. And you will slowly start to realise that the nature of graphs is irrelevant when we reason about their changes.
P.S. I see that the discussion has gained momentum, I allow myself to retire for a while, so that afterwards I can get an incomparable pleasure from reading the thoughts of some participants of a branch)The probabilities are here: forget for clarity that this is a price chart. Think of it as a graph of the temperature in the village of Gadiukino. And you will slowly start to realise that the nature of the graphs is irrelevant when we are talking about their changes.
P.S. I see that the discussion has gained momentum, I allow myself to retire for a while, so that afterwards I can get an incomparable pleasure from reading the thoughts of some participants of a branch)New Year's Eve is coming, it's time to pour into the glass :)
New Year's Eve is coming, it's time to pour a glass :)
Thank you for your opinion, it too has value for this thread, for it is quite revealing.
What are you smoking?
The practical benefit is simple... If previously a triangle with EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP (well, or with any other quote currency instead of USD) had 2 (two) independent charts (for example, EURUSD, and GBPUSD, and EURGBP are treated as their function, or in other ways choose two charts out of three), now there is one independent chart: EN. The other two are expressed through it. PN = EN + 1, EP is a little more complicated, like this:
No approximations / rounding here, everything is strict. The shapes of the graphs of all the "sides of the triangle" are identical in this representation. To the extent that EP and EN are related via degree (-1). But this is not the point, there is no problem to trade the pair GBPEUR with identical representation of trades in it with pairs of trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD. Essentially the shapes of all sides of the triangle are the same, strictly. The EN and PN charts, let me remind you, can also be directly traded, again without rounding, strictly, representing trades on them through EURUSD and GBPUSD trades. I assure you, this may be beneficial.
How and what kind - think about it.
The practical benefit is simple... If previously there were 2 (two) independent charts (e.g. EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP (or with any other quote currency instead of USD) in a triangle (e.g. EURUSD, and GBPUSD, and EURGBP are treated as their function, or by other means select two charts out of three), now there is one independent chart: EN. The other two are expressed through it. PN = EN + 1, EP is a little more complicated, like this:
No approximations / rounding here, everything is strict. The shapes of the graphs of all the "sides of the triangle" are identical in this representation. To the extent that EP and EN are related via degree (-1). But this is not the point, there is no problem to trade the pair GBPEUR with identical representation of trades in it with pairs of trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD. Essentially the shapes of all sides of the triangle are the same, strictly. The EN and PN charts, let me remind you, can also be directly traded, again without rounding, strictly, representing trades on them through EURUSD and GBPUSD trades. I assure you, this may be beneficial.
How and what kind - think about it.
Happy New Year to you, well in Psalm 5 you described that inequality is compensated for by the different cost of the item