A strategy with which to get into shorts. Usually before the cut-off, on stocks that can be shorted, JUNE JULY Harvest - page 9

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prostotrader:

Well, as I said, "it's not the tail that leads the dog".


At the opening low was 3754 :)

Added

Let's calculate the "dirty" profit

Pr =(189637.94 - 24682.64) + (3754 - 3711.5) * 1000 = 507455.3 rubles.

Now I'm gaining positions again.

Guys, "turn on your head" about the EBS, if you sold the futures and the market went way up,

then the futures (in separate accounts) will have a margin call, and you'll be forced to close.

EBS, not EBS - all these problems can be solved easily.
Here, the GP fired today. And, lo and behold, why would you hedge it with futures?
No reason. When the cutoff comes, it's either sell or hedge.
And you don't need any EBS. Just watch the position, that's all.
 
Yuriy Asaulenko:
EBS, not EBS - all these problems can be solved easily.
Here, the GP fired today. Now, why would you hedge it with futures?
No reason. When the cutoff comes, either sell or hedge.
And you don't need EBS in principle. Keep an eye on the position and that's all there is to it.

Yesterday they should not have hedged with futures))).

And tomorrow

The cut-off time comes and, either sell or hedge.

...it's 50/50 again.

Did you understand what you said?

 
Sergey Chalyshev:

The GP fired today and yesterday I shouldn't have hedged with futures ))))

And tomorrow

it's 50/50 again.

Did you understand what you said?

I get it.) You don't.) I have a GP hanging without a hedge, and for a long time.
By the way, no need to hedge today either, because the backwardation is 10p/share. We may see nothing but losses from such a hedge.
I mean that strategy with hedging does not always work. But all problems can be solved with normal logic, and no super special accounts are needed.
Earlier, I explained in my thread that I don't hedge on rising stocks.
 
Yuriy Asaulenko:
Earlier, I explained in my thread that I don't hedge on rising stocks.

You don't know when the growth will be over. What if tomorrow they steal half of the unfinished gasprom pipe? Or an accident? Or something like that ...

Added:

And by what criteria did you choose Gazprom? Or, say, when will you sell Gazprom?

 
Alexey Kozitsyn:

You don't know when the growth will be over. What if tomorrow they steal half of the unfinished gasprom pipe? Or an accident? Or something like that ...

Added:

And by what criteria did you choose Gazprom? Or, say, when you are going to sell Gazprom?

I don't know. When it collapses, then I will hedge it or sell it when it is not needed.

What are the criteria? - The main thing is that the choice was the right one, which is not always the case.

To sell? - I do not know either. After the cutoff, either sell or hedge, if that makes sense.

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:
I do not know. When it collapses, then I will hedge, or sell it when it is not needed.

The criteria? - The main thing is that it was the right choice, which is not always the case.

Sell? - I don't know either. After the cutoff, you either sell or hedge, if it makes sense.

It is like saying we should buy on the downside and sell on the upside. But that's not always the case :)

How do you determine that the choice is correct? Maybe when the price goes up? Or do you analyse company reports?

 
Alexey Kozitsyn:

It's like saying: buy on the low side and sell on the high side. But that's not always the case:)

How do you determine that the choice is the right one? Maybe when the price goes up? Or do you analyze your company's reports?

That the choice is correct can only be determined a posteriori. They haven't invented any other way.) And this is not just in trading, but in any field of activity.

If I analyze anything, it is market behavior, or maybe news that Zaitsev or prostotrader write, or that magpie brings. I do not do it on purpose.

Right now I am looking at buying Sber and selling its futures at 9.19. Contango is now 4.30p per share. Not much, but that's in terms of at least 8% p.a. if you wait for expiry. And if you don't wait, maybe 15-20%, but it's a matter of luck. I have not decided yet. We will be watching.

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

1. That the choice is correct can only be determined a posteriori. There seems to be no other way.) And this is not just in trading, but in any field of activity.

If I analyze anything, it is market behavior, and I also analyze news published by, say, Zaitsev or prostotrader. I do not do it myself.

2. right now I am looking at buying Sber and selling its 9.19 futures. contango is now 4p per share. Not much, but that translates to at least 8% p.a. if you wait for expiry. And if you don't wait, maybe 15-20%, but it's a matter of luck. I have not decided yet. We will be watching.

1. I see;

2. Suppose I want to join your ranks - the ranks of those who hedge the underlying asset with futures. Consider the same sberbank. EBS. Am I making a correct calculation:

- BA price (SBER) = 242.80p. It takes 24280r to buy the stock;

- Futures price (SBRF-9.19) = 24708p. On sale it takes 4564r (margin on sale);

- Total involved (excluding commissions): 24280 + 4564 = 28844p;

- Contango = 247.08 - 242.80 = 4.28p;

- Futures expiration: 2019.09.19 (i.e. in 78 days). It turns out that after 78 days I will get a return of 4.28p per share, respectively 428p? From the amount of 28844 this is 1.48% (again excluding commissions);

Questions:

- It turns out that the higher the contango, the better (more profitability)?

- Can this scheme be used only for contango? With backwardation (for the same 4.28p) this number will not work?

- Where does 8% come from, if 1.48% after 78 days is 6.93% after 365 days?

- What happens at the time of expiry? If I may elaborate, never owned a futures at the expiry date. Especially not hedged a BA with it;

- How to get 15-20% if not waiting for expiry?

Thanks in advance!

 
Alexey Kozitsyn:

Questions:

1.- Can this scheme only be used for contango? Will it not work for backwardation (for the same 4.28p)?

2.- Where did 8% come from, if 1.48% in 78 days is 6.93% in 365 days?

3.- What happens at the time of expiry? If you can elaborate, never owned a futures at the expiry date;

4.- How do I get 15-20% if I don't wait for expiry?

Thanks in advance!

1. With backwardation, the number will not work. With this scheme, there will be losses in the amount of backwardation.

2. this is a rough calculation in my mind. Here I am waiting and watching, if it will be 5p - definitely have to take it. In any case, we should look for a good entry.

3. we should not wait for expiry. You sell the whole position shortly before the expiry.

4. If it happens that the price of the asset during the play equals the futures, or it goes into backwardation (say, it will be tomorrow) - we sell the position. And you will get those 4 p's in one day.))

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

1. With backwardation, the number will not work. With this scheme, there will be a loss in the amount of backwardation.

2. this is a rough calculation in my mind. Here I am waiting and watching, if it will be 5p - definitely have to take it.

3. You do not need to wait for expiry. You sell the whole position shortly before it.

4. If the price of the asset happens to equalize with the futures, or it goes into backwardation (say, it will be tomorrow) - we sell the position. And you will get that 4p in one day.))

I.e. have I counted the collateral funds correctly? 28844?

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