Interesting and Humour - page 93
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Don't.
No one knows the limit anyway. And after the limit there will either be a vicious pandemic (or even more than one) or self-regulation.
Either someone or something will bomb the limit :)
The limit is 25 billion, not enough food for more.
But given the progression of population growth we will reach that line in 30-50 years.
So the cyberpunk lifestyle will be achieved in our lifetime.
The limit is 25 billion, not enough food for more.
But given the progression of population growth we will reach that line in 30-50 years.
on this chart - the last few at 1 billion - 12 years.
now 7 - we need 18 - so over 180 years
on the chart above - the last few at 1 billion - 12 years.
now 7 - need 18 - total - over 180 years
Don't forget that the last few years growth is mainly in developing countries (the old world is held together by migrants).
and that is where most of the population is, which means that every billion will only accelerate the growth rate.
Actually the population growth rate is not 7 billion but 3 or 4 billion. They are reproducing the next billion.
When it becomes 4-5 the speed will increase, when it becomes 5-6 even faster.
Roughly speaking, if the population of developing countries
3 to 12 years a new billion
4 - 9 years a new billion
5 - 7.2 years a new billion
6 - 6 years a new billion
7 - 5.1 years new billion
8 - 4.5 years a new billion
9 - 4 years new billion
10 - 3.5 years a new billion
11 - 3.2 years new billion
12 - 3 years new billion
13 - 2.7 years new billion
14 - 2.5 years new billion
15 - 2.4 years new billion
16 - 2.2 years new billion
17 - 2.1 years new billion
18 - 2 years new billion
19 - 1.9 years new billion
20 - 1.8 years new billion
21 - 1.7 years new billion
22 - 1.6 years new billion
23 - 1.5 years new billion
24 - 1.4 years new billion
25 - 1.3 years new billion
that's a total of 80 years. But the calculation is rather crude, the correction can be either + or -.
My prediction in 30 years (of course we won't reach the limit) but we will have serious problems.
Again, the graph is very inaccurate, there is no way to see the failure of WW2 and the boom in the 70s in developed countries.
Also, while developing countries do not really care about birth control (the exception is China), the old world is on the contrary stimulating the birth rate.
Growth is likely to slow down and then stop altogether, without any sudden collapses:
Growth is likely to slow down and then stop altogether, without any sudden collapses:
Casting for Dom 2