GOLD, Gold and XAUUSD - page 114

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Ryan L Johnson #:

I don't mean to sound smug, but it's a perennial question. If everyone could easily tell the difference between a pullback and a reversal, well. markets wouldn't move at all.

Work on defining it

You're right! That's what professionalism of a Trader is all about....

I.e. an experienced Trader can ALWAYS identify the beginning of a pullback..., not a price jerk against the trend, but the beginning of a long pullback....

 
Serqey Nikitin #:
I.e. an experienced Trader can ALWAYS identify the beginning of a pullback..., not the price jerking against the trend, but exactly the beginning of a long pullback....
I don't think that's true. But an experienced trader will lose less on wrong assumptions than he will earn on correct ones.
And yes, we are on the topic of gold... It's generally very poorly predictable compared to some other instruments, imho. Especially in the last year and a half, when it generally goes on and on, and sometimes rolls back well.
 
Jack_the_singer #:
I don't think that's true. But an experienced trader will lose less on wrong assumptions than he will make on correct ones.
And yes, we are on the topic of gold... It is generally very poorly predictable compared to some other instruments. Especially in the last year and a half, when it generally goes up and down, and sometimes rolls back well.

Is that a higher opinion...?

I won't even argue that gold is the smoothest trend of all the others, and therefore the most predictable....

The fact that there are pullbacks is the prose of life: pullbacks were, are and will ALWAYS be....

And a pro trader can identify all these pullbacks....

If you can't do it, then everything is in your hands! Try!

 
Jack_the_singer #:
I don't think that's true. But an experienced trader will lose less on wrong assumptions than he will earn on correct ones.
And yes, we are on the topic of gold... It's generally very poorly predictable compared to some other instruments, imho. Especially in the last year and a half, when it generally goes on and on, and sometimes rolls back well.

When we examine the weekly gold chart, we see that gold was relatively sideways from about 2014 to 2019. This would make pullback trading risky.

On the other hand, gold has been exceptionally directional (up) since late 2023. IMHO, there is no better time to be trading pullbacks and sitting out reversals.

XAUUSDWeekly

 
According to fibo, if we look at the growth movement since 04.11.2022, the first point of deep correction is 3730(23.6 fibo), if we break it, we will go to 3332(38.2 fibo) per ounce. There is an option to set up a trend robot and everything will be fine, no matter where it goes.
 
Ryan L Johnson #:

If we look at a weekly chart of gold, we see that it was in a relative sideways pattern from about 2014 to 2019. This makes trading on pullbacks risky.

On the other hand, gold has been exceptionally directional (up) since late 2023. IMHO, there is no better time to trade on pullbacks and wait out reversals.


Is this your opinion...?

Actually since 2008 it has been trending upwards! - This is according to the classical system of trend detection...

Yes, there were pullbacks, and without them, all kinds of strong, medium and weak ....

So what? ....

The trend continues until now!

But for a trader, profit is important, so he will profit on strong pullbacks....


The ability to identify pullbacks is the skill of a trader!

 
Serqey Nikitin #:
If you can't do it, it's in your hands! Try!
Interesting advice considering that you can't do it yourself. I am amazed, of course: judging by your posts above, you yourself in three pines confused and do not know how to "big problem" to solve, you ask the audience, but you do not take arrogance, such a tone is not other than from a gold Bentley write, but only judging by your bewilderment, this is not your case (although the same amount of arrogance). If gold was "the most predictable", you would not be asking your audience for hints about "How to determine the beginning of a pullback?".
I don't need to determine the beginning of a pullback in gold for my trading, I have invested some money in gold as a passive asset (and not in forex), and I don't give a damn about small waves; as for speculating on xauusd, I have made enough plus and loss trades on it not to be deceived by the seemingly smoothness of the chart, and to realise that when it comes from blonde estimates to real trading, gold is one of the most unpredictable, volatile and dangerous instruments for a trader: Like an unridden horse or bull that can easily throw the rider/rider off. Anyone who has traded on a real account with xauusd and, for example, even one of the most volatile pairs usdjpy, must have noticed that when switching from the gold chart to the yen chart, at first it is not clear at all - as if the jpy chart is standing still, so gold is running like a stung in the arse.
I can't say that I have given up trading gold altogether, but it is definitely not in my priority: it is a complex and dangerous instrument, imho, and I am in solidarity with experienced traders (with their own words, not with the forum view of their idealised abilities to predict the future), and many of the greatest traders of the planet, trading in different ways, are in solidarity in one thing: one of the most important points is not to lose money (to lose little). I don't see the benefit for my trading in trying to predict the power of a pullback 100% on the first swallows - I'm not Nostradamus, I don't believe in such possibilities, and I think it's right to get profit not by vangulation with stubbornness "I've determined it will be like this, info hundred", but by taking into account different scenarios and risk/profit ratio in each of them.
It is unlikely that we will have a useful and mutually respectful conversation, so I hope not to continue it and wish you a good evening.
 
Jack_the_singer #:
Interesting advice considering you can't do it yourself. Fascinating, of course: judging by your posts above
.

Is that your personal opinion...?

I'm glad - you are a REAL TRADER!... First you make something up, then you believe it, and finally you voice this nonsense....

GOOD LUCK!

 
Serqey Nikitin #:
First you make something up, then you believe it.
I apologise if I was wrong about you.
 
Serqey Nikitin #:

Is this your opinion...?

Actually since 2008 it has been trending upwards! - This is according to the classical system of trend detection...

Yes, there were pullbacks, and without them, all kinds of strong, medium and weak ....

To me, it's simply what the weekly chart shows. Yeah, you can go back as far as you want into price history and see times of varying trending and varying ranging.

My premise is that we need a well-defined directional bias (trend) in order to exploit pullback trading.

The extent to which a trend exists or not is largely dependent on the chart timeframe examined. Obviously, someone can examine a 20 minute chart and find a lot more "mini" pullbacks.

Serqey Nikitin #:

So what? ....

The trend continues until now!

But for a trader, profit is important, so he will profit on strong pullbacks....

To me, the current weekly price retracement traveled too far to be a mere pullback. For purposes of my one-shot-one-kill trading (no Martingale and no stacking), this is a reversal to be sat out for the moment. Buy-only mode is still in effect--the trend simply needs to be reestablished outside of reversal land.

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