There certainly is a Holy Grail! - page 5

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mrluck012
261
mrluck012  
Amir Yacoby:
Ok, the majority is far for claiming it is a holy grail. Can you tell me the success rate of a moving average? No two people will agree on sucess rate of same moving average even on the same exact strategy, because the rate changes on the period you measure. Take one period it is 80 pct, add a year above or below it changes to 50. Change the symbol or timeframe, same thing. To say it is 60 or 70 or 80 or 90 will never be correct because of this.
I just say that a steady system which was always 90 pct and will always be 90 pct can not exist. It is simple logic, really. No need to test all possibilities when logic can give the answer.


So you say: i tested moving average 60, and 62 periods, and they return miss trades, so based on that i can assume 61, because it's between them, will be a bad system too.  I think that's not right, because you are forgetting geometry. Maybe 61 periods create a special geometry pattern, and that creates a good system, today there are geometrical schemes very complex, like protein fold problem, that are impossible to brute force to find the best result. Everything you can see in the  universe is only hydrogen atoms that combines itself in different ways. Combine 2 hydrogen atoms you have a very different element Helium, so why not combining moving averages of whatever other mathematical element, can't create a third new one? 

About the holy grail, i believe that there are infinite of them, but using logic i can only say that i don't know, and can't prove both sides
Amir Yacoby
1187
Amir Yacoby  
mrluck012:

So you say: i tested moving average 60, and 62 periods, and they return miss trades, so based on that i can assume 61, because it's between them, will be a bad system too.  I think that's not right, because you are forgetting geometry. Maybe 61 periods create a special geometry pattern, and that creates a good system, today there are geometrical schemes very complex, like protein fold problem, that are impossible to brute force to find the best result. Everything you can see in the  universe is only hydrogen atoms that combines itself in different ways. Combine 2 hydrogen atoms you have a very different element Helium, so why not combining moving averages of whatever other mathematical element, can't create a third new one? 

About the holy grail, i believe that there are infinite of them, but using logic i can only say that i don't know, and can't prove both sides


No, I meant if you test moving average 61 on 2017 and moving average 61 on 2016 you get diffetent results.
If you test ma 61 on EURUSD and on EURJPY you get diffetent results.
If you test ma 61 on H4 and on MN1 you get different results.

OK? I think you should cook a bit with the markets, it will make you wiser at the end. I will wait for this to happen.

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
7847
Marco vd Heijden  

Amir Yacoby:

 I will wait for this to happen.


I was waiting for this too but i doubt that it will happen soon, if ever.

The only thing this guy buys and sells is this weird theoretical stuff directly coming from his head in stead of from his trading account.
Amir Yacoby
1187
Amir Yacoby  
PennySeven:

Sergey,

I posted my "Holy Grail" here as you requested. See above.

Please de-bug it for me - as you promised.

To debug it for you? You claim you have a holy grail. 
Well, in 3 months is enough for you to become rich and supply the proof? 
Or, you want to show your balance somehow every day in order for everybody to judge how fast you become rich. You can choose which proof you want.

PennySeven:

Holy Grail Summary

A trading plan is a Holy Grail..


A summary is not repeating your opinion that you came up with at the beginning. This is not a summary, it just shows you came to state your mind and no much more.

Amir Yacoby
1187
Amir Yacoby  
PennySeven:

I came here to state that a good trading plan should be able to give valid signals all the time. 


The emphasis is on SHOULD.
The fact that it should, does not mean it is really possible. 
As in "I should aspire to be the richest man in the world" - that some people may have - does not mean they can do it.

You just summarize your opinion - it's not wise to summarize a 5 page debate with different opinions that most did not approve your own opinion with your own opinion. 

As for debug - publish your account each day. You will have to explain why you don't become rich with your holy grail plan, and we will try to suggest you our improvements and suggestions to your trading flaws.

Otherwise, we don't have what to debug.
Amir Yacoby
1187
Amir Yacoby  
PennySeven:

Amir,

I came here to state that a good trading plan should be able to give valid signals all the time. Thus, it is fundamental that we develop our trading plans with the intention for them to be good trading plans, as we all do. So, the specific point I make is that a trading plan that, theoretically, always give valid signals is a good trading plan. I think there are many out there. The main reason traders are not the richest people in the world is that we are not able to follow our trading plans correctly


Did you hear about robots? They have no problem to execute correctly your plan. There are numerous robots which represent numerous trading plans (holy grails, in your language).

How do you explain the fact that you can not find a single (constant) profitable robot?

Amir Yacoby
1187
Amir Yacoby  
PennySeven:

I don´t have the time to study the MQL5 coding language and write the code for a robot. I am still perfecting my trading plan.

Can you run a robot confidentially without giving your code away to hackers over here? 

What is the average cost of getting someone here to code a robot for me?

It depends. Not very costy ususally, but I don't think that the cost should deter you, having the Holy Grail - and stating yourself that the reason to not become rich is because it is not programmed.

In fact, why are you afraid of hackers - as you say that every trading plan is a holy grail. Why stick to your own though? There are numerous free programmed trading plans (numerous holy grails).

Just think the level of this debate became very childish so I quit. 

If you are interested in my summary:
You clearly don't posses anything close to holy grail. You can bypass the weakness you think you have and program it, if you want a proof. 
It is possible to logically prove that constant holy grail can not exist (zero sum games where each side can have the holy grail can not co-exist).

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
7847
Marco vd Heijden  

Ok well to me any system that is profitable for an extended period of time, is a holy grail to me.

It does not even matter to me how much it profits, just that it does not generate losses (in the end when all trades are closed....)

And i happen to own one.

You wanna see it ?

Here it is:

I have nothing to hide, but i do wonder if my neighbor is hacking into the bluetooth since he bought a new Lambo recently so maybe it's a good comment about the fear of the hackers..

I think i need to change my wifi password asap.

PennySeven
556
PennySeven  

Holy Grail

A Holy Grail trading plan is one that only leads to profits, it never results in losses.

It is generally accepted in trading and it is proven over time that no-one has ever developed a Holy Grail.

However, in developing a trading plan, which is absolutely essential for trading, we have to aim to develop a Holy Grail on a demo account over a long period of time of plus or minus 10 000 hours. 

Theoretically, our trading plan is a Holy Grail when we can explain every market reversal in terms of our trading plan in simple rules. Since this is theoretically clearly possible, it is proof that the basic concept of searching for a Holy Grail is the only correct approach for developing a trading plan.

Why is it so difficult to implement a Holy Grail trading plan? We fail to implement it correctly because of our many human weaknesses when we trade in a real account.

Our cars, planes and all devices in all spheres of technological development at all times were and are developed on the Holy Grail principle. The basic concept is a logical part of human technological development.

It is the only correct way to develop a trading plan. We generally try and do it that way.

Good luck in developing your Holy Grail.

Amir Yacoby
1187
Amir Yacoby  
When a currency falls 3000 pips in 1 minute and comes back in a week how do you explain it in terms of the trading plan?
To aim is different then to achive. You can never explain all turns in terms if a trading plan unless you are breaking the rules. To add another specific  rule like you do after 10000 hours test will not get there.  It is called overfitting. The correct way is accepting that there are also losses in the trading plan. 
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