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There certainly is a Holy Grail! - page 4

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Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
6152
Marco vd Heijden  
PennySeven:

Maybe you are right. 

However, I think your are guessing - to be honest. :-)


I'm by no means guessing.

I'm speaking from experience and what i mean is that you can only learn to recognize market structures and patterns by analyzing the charts, thus putting in the hours to discover them until it becomes a habit.

Like learning to ride a bike or a car, you try until it becomes automatic.

whroeder1
17095
whroeder1  
Amir Yacoby: The human stupidity is without limit.
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.
          - Albert Einstein quotes from BrainyQuote.com
PennySeven
452
PennySeven  
whroeder1:

whroeder1, You quoted:


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.
          - Albert Einstein quotes from BrainyQuote.com


Einstein was wrong in that statement. But, he covered himself in another of this sayings. 

Only three things are infinite, the universe, human stupidity and human imagination. 

Einstein took care of that in his saying: "Logic takes you from A to B, imagination takes you everywhere." 

Everywhere means infinite locations, situations, etc. 

So, all in all, Einstein was right.

Albert Einstein Quotes
Albert Einstein Quotes
  • www.brainyquote.com
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein quotes from BrainyQuote.com
PennySeven
452
PennySeven  
Marco vd Heijden:

I'm by no means guessing.

I'm speaking from experience and what i mean is that you can only learn to recognize market structures and patterns by analyzing the charts, thus putting in the hours to discover them until it becomes a habit.

Like learning to ride a bike or a car, you try until it becomes automatic.


Yes, now I agree with you. 

PennySeven
452
PennySeven  

Einstein also specifically personally confirmed that there is a Holy Grail in trading. 

He said: "Where there is a will, there is a way."

:-) :-)

He was right, imagination takes you everywhere.

He was very impressed with trading.

He said there is no better job in the world than trading when he said: "Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world."  We all re-invest our profits.

mrluck012
270
mrluck012  
PennySeven:

Einstein also specifically personally confirmed that there is a Holy Grail in trading. 

He said: "Where there is a will, there is a way."

:-) :-)

He was right, imagination takes you everywhere.

He was very impressed with trading.

He said there is no better job in the world than trading when he said: "Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world."  We all re-invest our profits.


there are infinite holy grails, and by holy grail i mean a system with more than 90% wins, with same target and stoploss,  if a person says that there are no holy grails with custom indicators, i invite him to prove mathematically  to me that he's right, on the other side i can prove using math that the number is infinite

PennySeven
452
PennySeven  
mrluck012:

there are infinite holy grails, and by holy grail i mean a system with more than 90% wins, with same target and stoploss,  if a person says that there are no holy grails with custom indicators, i invite him to prove mathematically  to me that he's right, on the other side i can prove using math that the number is infinite


No-one uses custom indicators. That is text-book stuff. Back-ground. To educate us about the formulas for indicators. No-one uses them to trade. Unless they are very, very new to trading.

"with same target and stoploss"

It is impossible and completely unnecessary to set a target. No trader knows how far the market (tens of millions of traders and algorithms) is going to push a move. However, all your Holy Grails have rules that will indicate when a move is coming to and end - when it is over. Just follow the rules. 

You do not have to set a target. Just follow the correct rules after a valid entry signal and the correct rules will clearly indicate when it is time to get out and Take Profit.

It being a Holy Grail, it will have those rules. We just have to learn how to follow them correctly.

Like right now with the drop in Euro/Dollar from 6am this morning. When to take profit? Your trading plan must have an exact rule when you have to Take Profit after today´s drop. At 6am this morning no-one in the world knew how far the Euro would drop today. We don´t have to worry about that at 6am this morning. It was important to follow the SELL at 6am and stay with the drop. The trading plan rules will tell us when to take profit. We don´t need a "target". As long as we have a Holy Grail trading plan it will have those rules. We just have to follow them soon to TAKE PROFIT. But, not right now yet.

Amir Yacoby
1354
Amir Yacoby  
mrluck012:

there are infinite holy grails, and by holy grail i mean a system with more than 90% wins, with same target and stoploss,  if a person says that there are no holy grails with custom indicators, i invite him to prove mathematically  to me that he's right, on the other side i can prove using math that the number is infinite

There can be a 90% wins system - but it is not guaranteed to keep forever. Actually, it is only logical that it will stop working some day because the market behaviour is the sum of the behaviour of the whole money in it. and as the successful strategies collect more money and their volume among the total money increases, the behaviour of the market is changed and the method becomes less successful. This is the proof that there is no CONSTANT holy grail. It can always change, even the 90% - is not accurate to say - 90% what? For how long measured? How many trades? thousands or dozens? etc.. If you check the 90% on a sub-period - it can be 95%. And if you measure on another sub-period - it can measure 50%. It all depends how and when you measure. Meaning, you can never really say you have a 90% system, you should say I measured on this currency on that period of time and on that timeframe and this number of trades and got 90%. You disregard it and just make the imagionary leap towards 'I have a 90% win system' causing you to believe that your future will be the same. Again, the most important, It can never last forever.

And that is without mentioning the difficulty of larger and larger money to trade. Buy one lot, no problem. Buy 1 million lot, and all the sellers gone up above 100 and more pips above the price - meaning, the buyer himself is the cause for raising the price for his own buys.

And finally, I know that you have a sister that you don't tell us about. If you claim not, you surely can not prove it to us. Unless you give us dna tests of all the girls in the world. And don't forget, new baby girls are born every second. It is infinite.

mrluck012
270
mrluck012  
Amir Yacoby:

There can be a 90% wins system - but it is not guaranteed to keep forever. Actually, it is only logical that it will stop working some day because the market behaviour is the sum of the behaviour of the whole money in it. and as the successful strategies collect more money and their volume among the total money increases, the behaviour of the market is changed and the method becomes less successful. This is the proof that there is no CONSTANT holy grail. It can always change, even the 90% - is not accurate to say - 90% what? For how long measured? How many trades? thousands or dozens? etc.. If you check the 90% on a sub-period - it can be 95%. And if you measure on another sub-period - it can measure 50%. It all depends how and when you measure. And again, the most important, It can never last forever.

And that is without mentioning the difficulty of larger and larger money to trade. Buy one lot, no problem. Buy 1 million lot, and all the sellers gone up above 100 and more pips above the price - meaning, the buyer himself is the cause for raising the price for his own buys.

And finally, I know that you have a sister that you don't tell us about. If you claim not, you surely can not prove it to us. Unless you give us dna tests of all the girls in the world. And don't forget, new baby girls are born every second. It is infinite.


A backtest is testing in a limited period, or a cycle, if in my backtest i have 90% wins, for example, what are the odds that it was pure luck? So what that means? that this happened for a reason. So you are saying to me that this reason may soon disappear and the system will not work anymore, but if i backtest it for 1000 entries, i have 90% sucess, and in the future i need only 100 trades to reach my life objective, what's the probability that this system will not work for the next 100 trades? very very low.  So in this case, for 1000 entries of backtes, when only 100 of next trades you are "rich", you can say you have a holy grail. 

"And finally, I know that you have a sister that you don't tell us about. If you claim not, you surely can not prove it to us. Unless you give us dna tests of all the girls in the world. And don't forget, new baby girls are born every second. It is infinite." - So basically you're saying that you can only say that something exists if you show it, yes you're right, but also you can't say it doesn't exist, that would be incorrect, as to say that aliens don't exist, so if you don't have the holy grail, you should say: i really don't know, it can exists infinitely or can not exist, that's the valid approach

mrluck012
270
mrluck012  
PennySeven:

No-one uses custom indicators. That is text-book stuff. Back-ground. To educate us about the formulas for indicators. No-one uses them to trade. Unless they are very, very new to trading.

"with same target and stoploss"

It is impossible and completely unnecessary to set a target. No trader knows how far the market (tens of millions of traders and algorithms) is going to push a move. However, all your Holy Grails have rules that will indicate when a move is coming to and end - when it is over. Just follow the rules. 

You do not have to set a target. Just follow the correct rules after a valid entry signal and the correct rules will clearly indicate when it is time to get out and Take Profit.

It being a Holy Grail, it will have those rules. We just have to learn how to follow them correctly.

Like right now with the drop in Euro/Dollar from 6am this morning. When to take profit? Your trading plan must have an exact rule when you have to Take Profit after today´s drop. At 6am this morning no-one in the world knew how far the Euro would drop today. We don´t have to worry about that at 6am this morning. It was important to follow the SELL at 6am and stay with the drop. The trading plan rules will tell us when to take profit. We don´t need a "target". As long as we have a Holy Grail trading plan it will have those rules. We just have to follow them soon to TAKE PROFIT. But, not right now yet.


I use custom indicators to trade, and the majority of traders use it. What do you think is a moving average? everybody uses them 

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