...[i am joking ... .]:)
Yes, I agree. :-) :-)
My Holy Grail works for me, for now. So, I am happy even before Christmas. :-)
Mine isn´t perfect yet.
I am always very happy when I can improve it with a very simple, logical rule.
Yes, you are so right.
The only proof are those $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$! nothing else. :-) :-)
"What I am trying to state is that a trading plan is only acceptable when the rules can always profitably deal with all normal market conditions, i.e., excluding news events that need specific rules with acts of God and natural disasters dealt with in terms of the ever present Stop Loss."
This is a round logic statement - when a system is a holy grail (always winning) then only I accept it and then it is a holy grail.Whatever you might think, and with all due respect, you don't have a holy grail (you can be profitable of course, but not an always win as you say).But meanwhile, enjoy.
Thank you for your replies.
Surely, when you look at your principle trading chart, you personally can, after the event, explain each and every valid BUY and SELL and TAKE Profit situation on your chart in terms of your trading plan - in simple terms that you understand?
That must be true.
Otherwise you don´t have a trading plan. Is that not true?
Or do you trade on looking for probable trade set ups?
I look at each European and US trading session as one session. I can clearly see the BUY and SELL and Take Profit entry points for that period every day - at the end of that session, that is at the end of the US session.
Surely everybody would agree that a 20 pip down move is a 20 pip down move with a clear Sell signal at the top and a clear BUY signal at the bottom as the market gyrates during the EU - US session.
So, there was a SELL and a BUY. An acceptable trading plan would allow the trader to explain the SELL signal and BUY signal in terms of the trading plan. That makes it a Holy Grail, because that can be done for all clearly valid SELL and BUY points during the entire EU/US session every trading day. Everyone would agree that every 15 pips to 70 pips move as clearly seen on the chart afterwards was a profit cycle. And that those moves can be explained in terms of most trading plans. That makes those trading plans - when they can handle all situations and can explain all situations in terms of theirs rules, Holy Grails - in theory. Don´t you see that?
Doing that in practice is another story. That is where we as humans fail, but, the trading plans are Holy Grails. We are just not capable of following them correctly in the heat of the trading moment.
" (you can be profitable of course, but not an always win as you say)."
I agree 100% with you: I cannot be in an always win situation all the time. You are right. I am certainly not in an always win all the time. (Today I had three profitable trades and three losses and made 16%. I did not have a rule for the last move in the €/$, now I have.) The reason being because I am not able to follow my trading plan correctly. The trading plan is a Holy Grail, but, because I cannot follow it correctly all the time, I make losses. Yes, that is correct. My losses - because of my inability to follow my trading plan correctly - do not negate the fact that if I were to follow it correctly all the time, I would never make losses. It does not negate the fact that the trading plan, like most other trading plans, is a Holy Grail - in theory, but not in practice.
From there I take the next step and say: a trading plan that is not a Holy Grail, is not an acceptable trading plan. I suspect most trading plans are Holy Grails. Traders, like me, are not capable to implement those Holy Grail trading plans correctly because of our normal many human weaknesses.
And then I take the next step and say: all trading plans that include losses as part of the plan are not acceptable trading plans. :-) :-)
My actual trading includes losses, not as a planned percentage of my strategy, but as a result of my many human weaknesses when trading. My trading plan does not include acceptance of entries or exits planning to make losses. My trading plan would always result in profits - if I were capable of always implementing it correctly in the heat to the trading moment.
Conclusion: my trading plan - per se - is a Holy Grail, like most other trading plans.
You state: "You can never see all normal conditions, they are endless and ever changing."
I agree that I can never see all normal conditions and that they are endless and ever changing. You are right in those observations.
However, my trading plan is sufficiently live-tested over more than 9000 hours and sufficiently conservative - I don´t trade the fastest charts - with two unique indicators that no-one else uses - that I believe it is a Holy Grail.
It is not yet perfect.
The two unique indicators may be the critical factors.
But, you are right. Let me come back in a few months.
Thank you for you input.
You will be able to tell afterwards.
As is with most things..
there are infinite holy grails out there, the problem is that in order to find one you need to brute force different strategies, and that consumes energy and processing power, so it's not economically doable, not for a retail investor, but i'm sure the big guys with big machines and good software can find these holy grails, because they can test trillions of possibilities in a short amount of time.
I love holy grails. Too good to be true to make you jump right into the pool of sharks.
I have made one before for the futures market. It is so good that I dump money into the market without a second thought.
But market moves too fast at certain times of the day, and the holy system cannot keep up with that kind of speed.
Keep triggering my stop losses.
It is a rude awakening for me.
Any way, good luck in finding a holy grail.