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There certainly is a Holy Grail! - page 13

Icham Aidibe
11348
Icham Aidibe  
Enrique Dangeroux:

I do not consider trading to be the same as gambling.  Drawing a line on a chart and say you have a very clear idea of what happens next, that i consider gambling.

I don't consider it as being gambling. It's not the conclusion of a whole panel of indicators - some use all of them in their strategies - but it's enough. 

Because let me tell you, that to the direction you open, another factor is taken in account. Risk Reward. You can win only 40% of your deals and get out with a huge profit.

Where's the luck ? 

autotraderbra
95
autotraderbra  

Some futures you can predict, i can predict when the next lunar eclipse will happen, i can predict at what time tomorrow the sun will appear, of course nothing is 100% guaranteed, so forex is the same, and not 100% predictable, but do you need it to be 100% to make profit?


warren buffet

james simons

jesse livermore

nicolar darvas

... basically any successful trader that uses technical analysis or fundamentalists, prove that you can make money predicting the future, not 100%, but enough to make lots of money, they predict using the past

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
6521
Marco vd Heijden  

Is it hard to see that if you are Warren Buffet you have enough capital to take on large positions sizes and move markets ?

That is creating the future not predicting the future and do you really believe that Buffet uses technical analysis?

This can only be done if you have enough base capital so not everybody can do it.

Have you read his books ? 

autotraderbra
95
autotraderbra  

1- warren buffet was always a whale?

2- if you have a clothe store, you buy clothes for a cheaper price than you sell, can you predict exactly that you will sell all the clothes you bought?

if the answer is no- then you have to agree that you can make money without predicting 100% of the future, because in every city you can see those merchants

if the answer is yes, show me how

3- your statement:

"you can't predict the future"

ok i agree, but if i can't predict what will happen does that mean that i can't predict what will likely not happen?


If i can predict what will likely not happen, in forex is easy, is just do the opposite direction

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
6521
Marco vd Heijden  
autotraderbra:

ok i agree, but if i can't predict what will happen does that mean that i can't predict what will likely not happen?

If i can predict what will likely not happen, in forex is easy, is just do the opposite direction

This is not predicting the future, it is called expectation.

Expecting something to happen is not the same as predicting the future.

Therin lies the rub.

autotraderbra
95
autotraderbra  

"Expecting something to happen is not the same as predicting the future."

If you expect some trades based on your strategy using technical analysis, and then in some time you become rich. Does that mean you predicted the future in your favor, or not?

Icham Aidibe
11348
Icham Aidibe  
autotraderbra:

"Expecting something to happen is not the same as predicting the future."

If you expect some trades based on your strategy using technical analysis, and then in some time you become rich. Does that mean you predicted the future in your favor, or not?

For sure he won't change his mind :-) 

Or he may be just kidding us ... maybe I'm wrong, but as I remember Marco, wasn't it you with a price predictor on his chart ? 

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
6521
Marco vd Heijden  
Icham Aidibe:

For sure he won't change his mind :-) 

Or he may be just kidding us ... maybe I'm wrong, but as I remember Marco, wasn't it you with a price predictor on his chart ? 

Not me and i'm not kidding it's not possible to predict the future.

Of course you can calculate the bandwidth of what is expected to happen, but it's not the same.

Predicting the future involves a parameter of certainty that can not be met on forehand.  

I already mentioned this many times, it's ironic that the discussion keeps coming back to the impossible task of trying to predict the future,

While it is not needed (to predict the future) to trade profitable, you do not have to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit.

It just blows my mind to see that people put that aside, and continue to talk about predicting the future.(which is impossible)

Enrique Dangeroux
345
Enrique Dangeroux  

Well in defense of these people... Most people seem to be cultivated in the wonderful world of indicators. Living in the world of indicators puts one in a limited mindset. Conflicting signals on different time frames, different pairs and so on. It keeps you trapped in price go either up or down way of thinking. Hence you would feel the urge to predict what is going to happen.

It is no surprise, because every other post on this forum, or any other trading forum for that matter, is about indicator this or indicator that. It is mind numbing.

Icham Aidibe
11348
Icham Aidibe  
Marco vd Heijden:

Not me and i'm not kidding it's not possible to predict the future.

Of course you can calculate the bandwidth of what is expected to happen, but it's not the same.

Predicting the future involves a parameter of certainty that can not be met on forehand.  

I already mentioned this many times, it's ironic that the discussion keeps coming back to the impossible task of trying to predict the future,

While it is not needed (to predict the future) to trade profitable, you do not have to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit.

It just blows my mind to see that people put that aside, and continue to talk about predicting the future.(which is impossible)

Okay, but a meteo forecast is a prevision. It's written nowhere that future prediction comes along with exactitude. 

I could also be ironic and claim that adding 0.1 lot per hour to my beheld 1 lot position, 10 hours later, i'll have 2 lots. It's exact. It's future. 

Enrique Dangeroux:

Well in defense of these people... Most people seem to be cultivated in the wonderful world of indicators. Living in the world of indicators puts one in a limited mindset. Conflicting signals on different time frames, different pairs and so on. It keeps you trapped in price go either up or down way of thinking. Hence you would feel the urge to predict what is going to happen.

It is no surprise, because every other post on this forum, or any other trading forum for that matter, is about indicator this or indicator that. It is mind numbing.

I just feel like you are trying to assert yourself. So I leave you with the last word.