Theory Relativity in forex - page 2
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You are wrong, i suggest you go back to high school physics, I can prove 2+2 is 4, i can test as many times and with different ways, e= mc2 i can test is multiple times, i'll have the same results, my GPS knows that.
But the weather, you say it's deterministic, but how can you prove it to me? No way, you would need a quantum computer to calculate non polynomial numbers, and if you can calculate that much iterations you are basically God, so there lies the difference in deterministic, and non deterministic, you "suspect" that the weather is a combination of multiple linear and procedural factors, but that's only on your mind, you can never prove it, nobody can, so you can only say % chance of something on the weather will happen, and even so, its based on a previous limited backtest, which you only guess something will happen in the future.
I agree, that the weather is pretty much like the markets. So there i say: you can not use relativity theory on the markets, because its deterministic, but the market is non deterministic, so the correct approach is not algebra or calculus (of course any learning is good anyway), linear algebra, but the math themes correlated with trading are about quantum physics, not traditional physics, so the best one are geometry, probability, statistics, number theory, which are related to quantum mechanics.
You are confusing non predictable and non deterministic. You have a metaphysical view about what deterministic is meaning.
The market is obviously non predictable, you still have to prove it's non deterministic. Anyway that doesn't matter, the idea of this topic is interesting even if it's not working.
It is not necessary to predict the market, in order to make a profit.
Even if you were able to do so, which you are not because it is impossible,
It would not make any difference for a profitable trader because,
It is not necessary to predict the market, in order to make a profit.
The conclusion must be that they are already profitable without predicting the market.
And that shows something that is possible,
And it also shows that you are wasting your time on,
Unnecessary and impossible things.
Now if you are so sure about your ability to predict markets i suggest you stop talking and get going.
I know that if you were able to predict the markets you would not be here discussing these items.
It is not necessary to predict the market, in order to make a profit.
Even if you were able to do so, which you are not because it is impossible,
It would not make any difference for a profitable trader because,
It is not necessary to predict the market, in order to make a profit.
The conclusion must be that they are already profitable without predicting the market.
And that shows something that is possible,
And it also shows that you are wasting your time on,
Unnecessary and impossible things.
Now if you are so sure about your ability to predict markets i suggest you stop talking and get going.
I know that if you were able to predict the markets you would not be here discussing these items.
So the market is predictable but non deterministic...just like Mister Luck actually.
So the market is predictable but non deterministic...just like Mister Luck actually.
Well there is coincidence and luck, and then there is statistics.
That small percentage of profitable traders.....they sure are lucky....
They are lucky a lot of times, they are lucky most of the time.
People don't realize that this luck usually follows many years of hard work.
So then the question will be, is it luck or is it something else ?
I tend to think it's a habit, and luckily habits can be learned.
Not by talking,
But by trying, so he's not going to be lucky if he continues to discuss the next space time continuum, or whatever you guys are talking about.
I don' think that it's necessary in trading, because trading usually only involves 3 buttons and a robot, and time....
The markets are non deterministic, there is no formula to make money, otherwise everybody would be rich. I say non deterministic will always be non predictable, and all deterministic facts are predictable, because you can calculate them if you have enough information about the past, but for a non deterministic even if someone give you all the information about the past you can't calculate it because it's too much data, called NP numbers.
"It is not necessary to predict the market, in order to make a profit.
Even if you were able to do so, which you are not because it is impossible" ---
Ok so explain in details what's you approach here, because you never say it, what about finally explain the system you use? that will be more correct than to say like the bible guys in parables. Please explain to me:
a- do you use custom indicators?
b- if not how do you define your entries? if you don't define entries, how do you define your exits?
"So the market is predictable but non deterministic...just like Mister Luck actually."
Yes i understand the contradiction, but my phrase was out of context, i mean you can't predict the next trade, but on a row of trades, you kind of "predict", but in probabilities
"I don' think that it's necessary in trading, because trading usually only involves 3 buttons and a robot, and time...."
3 buttons you mean buy sell and close, but how do you define your entries? or closes?
Back at the topic, i just think linear algebra doesn't work with trading, in quantum mechanics they don't use it, but probabilities, geometry, and differential equations, so if you can use traditional physics on themes related to quantum physics you're the next Einstein, and as non deterministic themes are related to quantum physics, general relativity won't help you much
"It is not necessary to predict the market, in order to make a profit.
Even if you were able to do so, which you are not because it is impossible" ---
a- do you use custom indicators?
b- if not how do you define your entries? if you don't define entries, how do you define your exits?
3 buttons you mean buy sell and close, but how do you define your entries? or closes?
Okay let me try one more time...
So if you realize that predicting the market is impossible, then why would you need to define your entries ?
Explain to me the difference between trying to predict the market and defining you entries.
Because as soon as you start to define your entries you are trying to predict the market, which is impossible.
I just don't understand why it is so hard for you to grasp this.
You can just blindly click the button... there i have said it.
Or you can use timed entries for example at the start of a new Minute,Hour,Day,Week,Month everyday at 8, and etc.
Because luckily, we can predict time... Or at least i can...
I can predict exactly when it will be let's say 20:00...
Who ever invented the phrase 'Time is money' was right.
So onto the next part... Exits.
Yes there is another thing that you can control...
You can say for example i want to risk 2% of my current account balance on this trade.
I have said it many times winners are always trying to limit their losses, where losers are always talking about profits.
So you can say for example when profit reaches >$10, put a stop at break even.
This way this particular trade can only result in a...
This way this particular trade can only either hit your break or continue to go up.
Then you can start to adjust your stop, the art of riding along for as long as possible.
At some point you will either exit at your break point or exit at the end of the trend.
Or in some cases you will take a loss of 2% - 10% or whatever risk you had determined at the beginning.
Now realize that in this scenario almost everything is known on forehand.
You know the maximum loss by %.
You know the point of break even.
You know that if it passes your threshold, your trade is safe.
Let's call this a trading protocol.
Now the only thing that you can not know on forehand, is how long this trade is going to last... Time.
Interesting isn't it ?
We have successfully reversed all known components into unknown components and all unknown components into known components.
There is no room for any emotion in this trade, you know on forehand the worst case scenario and things can only get better.
Usually people panic when there are too many unknown elements...
So let's recap in case your going to accuse me of not telling again:
Now you will have to find out the threshold to break even per instrument and you will also have to find out the timed entries.
But besides all of that, this protocol is already like trying to shoot a sitting duck.
thanks for sharing your trading practice, but something doesn't fit, because you say you define you entries by time, but if you don't use an indicator to make sure of the trend, you can go badly against the market and lose a lot of money, about exists, i agree, one should trade the less amount possible, but when you say to put a stop when you have some pips in advance, but on real practice there is the spread, when you click the button, you are already in a loss, you have to go some pips, to break even, so you need no less than 5 pips to this strategy to be useful, and a lot of times, the market goes back, to then advance in your direction, but what if when you click the button the price immediatelly starts to go against you? That will happen 50% of the time, if your entries are based on time, with no criteria.
"Now realize that in this scenario almost everything is known on forehand.
You know the maximum loss by %.
You know the point of break even.
You know that if it passes your threshold, your trade is safe."
- Maximum loss is also used on technical analysis, so we already use it
- knowing the break even only will have some effect if the price already moved favorably to you, by some pips, that will happen only 50%, so behind the commission, there in no edge here
- IF it passes, but at least half of the time, based on what you have told us, the price will immediately go against you, before you have extra pips, so what's the plan on these times the price go against you?
I think there is more than what you explain, please elaborate more, because, what you give us already is a very simple strategy, i could create an ea easily on that and prove it doesn't work, if its only that...
If you can not predict the market, you can always go badly against the trend.
This shows that no matter what i tell you, you will stick you your ' The market is predictable' theory, and therefore it will not make any difference what anybody tells you because you just default back to it.
Of course there is more but i would end up writing a book and we already have plenty of those, and for a start this is all you need.
You can only go bad by taking on too large positions, but then you know because of the rows of losses, it's just like chip tuning a car engine.
At some point you got it just right and your ahead of the others, most of the time, which is all you'll ever need.
Time is money.
"It's now or never."
--- Inception