There certainly is a Holy Grail! - page 17

 
Carmine Pinto:

The fact is that it is a totally useless - in my humble opinion - and something futile discussion until you define what "holy grail" is all about (Is it something that print money without risk? or what? something that have X risk to make Y reward with little or no emotional and technical commitment at all? what is it for you?).

I think that people that are talking too much about "holy grail" are forgetting that trading in itself is a very ordinary activity, nothing special neither mystical in this activity.

Trading a financial instruments portfolio can be compared to whatever business activity around the world with a difference in the operating form (*a sort of virtual form* in this operating difference lies the mirage to find something that "print money" easily); everyday you can find that a lot of entrepreneurs are failing in the meanwhile others are having incredible success in their own sector (how many restaurant in New York are failed and how many are thriving? Probably those winners/losers figures looks just like in financial trading), does these succesful entrepreneurs have discovered the "holy grail" of their business sector? Absolutely NO. They just found an organized way to get the best from their business, they are acting clever and balanced on the risks in comparison to the possible rewards, they are innovating their business, they are investing in solutions and research field; when they found some success their minds are already ahead to many others to understand how to improve or innovate some sectors to improve market competition, in the end the challenge never ends.

When you found your organized way to prosper in the market in these days, you don't have in your hands the "eternal key" to endless success: far from it.

What really is endless are the skills given by experience that forge yor character and keep you balanced in your decisions over the span of your career of whatever business we are talking about.

Also, when you are too excited because you see that you can get by your "system" 300% in 3 day, you need to cool down your mind and think again on it; in fact someone said: "The problem is not about to make money in the market but to keep the money".

The message is clear: poor periods will come for sure due thousand reasons and since risk and rewards are strictly correlated (despite how good is your system) if you made 300% in 3 days, in those bad periods you will lose 2000%  (lol)

Remember that when you get too excited on your trading...something is wrong (as general advice).

Well, I assumed that the meaning of "holy grail" was obvious...it is quite a common thought. However if you don't know what "holy grail" stands for, I tell you: it is not something technically expicable because it doesn't exist yet...it is something that make you win every time, 100%, forever. What I was talking about it is simply that I think that such a system could exist and can be reached in the future, it is just my guess, like for example guess that one day will exist an artificial intelligence very similar to human mind... but, frankly I hope this will never happen, because if such a system will be released, it would be the END of trading.

 
jox90:

Well, I assumed that the meaning of "holy grail" was obvious...it is quite a common thought. However if you don't know what "holy grail" stands for, I tell you: it is not something technically expicable because it doesn't exist yet...it is something that make you win every time, 100%, forever. What I was talking about it is simply that I think that such a system could exist and can be reached in the future, it is just my guess, like for example guess that one day will exist an artificial intelligence very similar to human mind... but, frankly I hope this will never happen, because if such a system will be released, it would be the END of trading.

So, in those classic terms it's not going to happen: don't worry. This is pure sci-fi   :-)

People who dream about such event don't really understand the imperfection of market nature which is a human environment.

Take the example I described above: let's immagine an entrepreneurs that tomorrow morning doesn't have anymore expenses but only revenues...how do you see this? Possible or not?

Guys remember that the words "Financial Risk" are something that is not possible to be deleted from the dictionary of whatever business in the world, you can only work hard and try to minimize them!

 
Carmine Pinto:

So, in those classic terms it's not going to happen: don't worry. This is pure sci-fi   :-)

People who dream about such event don't really understand the imperfection of market nature which is a human environment.

Take the example I described above: let's immagine an entrepreneurs that tomorrow morning doesn't have anymore expenses but only revenues...how do you see this? Possible or not?

Guys remember that the words "Financial Risk" are something that is not possible to be deleted from the dictionary of whatever business in the world, you can only work hard and try to minimize them!

I believe in technical analysis as a science that can reach perfect results, because I think everything in nature has a rule, there's no chaos or imperfection, but only a perfection too difficult to understand so that we call that "imperfection". I cannot call this fantasy cause I truly believe in this, but I know I cannot prove that now and maybe I will not be able to prove that in all my life, so I should say that is my philosophy...
 
jox90:
I believe in technical analysis as a science that can reach perfect results, because I think everything in nature has a rule, there's no chaos or imperfection, but only a perfection too difficult to understand so that we call that "imperfection". I cannot call this fantasy cause I truly believe in this, but I know I cannot prove that now and maybe I will not be able to prove that in all my life, so I should say that is my philosophy...

I respect your opinion but what you don't understand is that technical analysis is not a perfect science at all, in fact it was created as natural consequence just doing obvious observations about human behavior in financial markets that often take the form of known patterns. Ralph Nelson Elliott, tried to classify market waves and he tried to describe even complex waves which don't follow classic schemes and every serious analyst around the world will say you that Elliott theory can't be applied accurately all the time while a lot of traders are stubborn to count waves even when it is not possible, same speech for the classic patterns (flags, triangles, pennants etc...) the reason is simple: often money flow doesn't follow perfectly the known behavior that we would see as "cataloged"

Behind your charts there are simply orders flows made by humans due the most diverse reasons (influenced by greed, fear and economical/geopolitical events).

Why this process (roughly described by technical analysis) would be perfectly structured 100% of the time in your opinion? I firmly believe that even if those orders would be made totally by robots the process couldn't be perfectly structured at all.

 
PennySeven:

EuroDollar M3 Holy Grail for today 12-03-2018


There certainly is a Holy Grail! :-)

Now repeat with me: "I am human and this is just a graph! Come on!" Yeah (Lol)
 
PennySeven:

Let´s see whether it is right or wrong in this move. It is right most of the time, but, only at the right time to use it and follow it. Its time passes after a while because it was developed only for the short period.

It does not work during the long period.

I think that is not the best moment to sell because it is an uptrend, so it can easily reach a short stop loss...
 
PennySeven:
I can't get to the forum on my laptop. This is from my phone. No net neutrality where I am.

It was a mistake to follow the M3 signal because M3 to M30 MACDs are all in the Zone. 
I have updated my rules to move to the M5  MACD under those circumstances.

I am refining my rules.  I am getting there, step by step.

The problem you will find everytime that you will refine "rules" is that market will change again and those rules will not work anymore and you will keep to change rules all the time because you want perfection (alias: holy grail research)

You need to take some losses and this is the reason I said that 300% in 3 day is only a mirage when things are going nicely...but what about when things are going bad? Can you save your account if you trade at that risk level? I think it is very unlikely.

Just for fun I post you how my desktop background looks like

Fo(re)x


Just to remember me the kind of look I need to have before to place any trade  :D

This mean that I need to have confirmations from different perspectives before to place any trades, technical analysis is just a small part of the perspectives (and I'm not talking about technical indicators when I mention technical analysis; or at least technical indicators are the last thing I want to check)

It would be too good to be true "to follow a signal given by a perfect system" and make a lot of money all the time: countries in default status would solve their crisis without problems (lol)

Forget perfection, just be like the water: study (a lot), adapt, react, fend and thrive in this huge ocean.

Those are the key words to remember.

 
It's true that the market is the result of people emotions and many other things but I would like to remember one of the most important rules of technical analysis that you all can find in books like the Pring or the Murphy: "price contains all informations of what affect it". And it is curious that some techniques like for example cyclic analysis prove that there is a cycle in the market, almost as if there is a cycle in our emotions and our lives, as well as cauliflowers repeat their shape...It's very interesting...OH NO! We are cauliflowers! Someone will surely eat us...maybe Goldman Sachs, or Polifemo! AAAAAH  (LOL)
 
jox90:
It's true that the market is the result of people emotions and many other things but I would like to remember one of the most important rules of technical analysis that you all can find in books like the Pring or the Murphy: "price contains all informations of what affect it".

This sentence is something so obvious that sounds almost redundant.

I would correct as follow: "price contains all informations of what affect it on the left side of the screen which can give some clues about what could happen on the right edge of it".

 
Carmine Pinto:

This sentence is something so obvious that sounds almost redundant.

I would correct as follow: "price contains all informations of what affect it on the left side of the screen which can give some clues about what could happen on the right edge of it".

I also disagree: it's obvious that we cannot know the future (the right edge), in fact I told about cyclical analysis which is based on past  price values.
Reason: